AccuScore: Stats indicate Marshall trade worth an extra win to Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins clearly have upgraded at wide receiver with Wednesday’s acquisition of Brandon Marshall. They had hoped Ted Ginn Jr. would emerge as a true No. 1, but you can count his big catches on one hand. You’d need both hands and feet to count his big drops. Ginn just doesn’t have the look of a premier player. Marshall, on the other hand, has proven he can be a dominant go-to player.

To evaluate Marshall’s value to the Dolphins, AccuScore "re-simulated" the entire 2009 NFL season. The Dolphins were 7-9 in 2009; in our re-simulation, they improved to 8 wins per 10,000 season simulations, and they made the playoffs in 30.3 percent of the simulations. They won the AFC East 16 percent of the time.

With Marshall, the numbers get even better; Miami averaged 8.9 wins per 10,000 simulations and had a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs (21 percent chance of a division crown). This improvement is sizable, especially when it’s a wide receiver being added.

DOLPHINS REPLAY 2009

  WIN LOSS PCT DIV PLAY
Before trade 8.0 8.0 0.5 16.0 30.3
With Marshall 8.9 7.1 0.556 21.0 40.0
IMPACT 0.9 -0.9 0.056 5.0 9.7

Like all teams, the actual 2010 Dolphins forecast will depend significantly on the upcoming draft as well as future trades and free-agent signings. At least Miami knows it won’t need to take a wideout because, in addition to Marshall, it has quality secondary options in Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo and Ginn). 

Please visit AccuScore.com to make sure you are up to date with the latest game forecasts, which are updated throughout the week based on injury and weather updates.

The Miami Dolphins clearly have upgraded at wide receiver with Wednesday’s acquisition of Brandon Marshall. They had hoped Ted Ginn Jr. would emerge as a true No. 1, but you can count his big catches on one hand. You’d need both hands and feet to count his big drops. Ginn just doesn’t have the look of a premier player. Marshall, on the other hand, has proven he can be a dominant go-to player.

To evaluate Marshall’s value to the Dolphins, AccuScore "re-simulated" the entire 2009 NFL season. The Dolphins were 7-9 in 2009; in our re-simulation, they improved to 8 wins per 10,000 season simulations, and they made the playoffs in 30.3 percent of the simulations. They won the AFC East 16 percent of the time.

With Marshall, the numbers get even better; Miami averaged 8.9 wins per 10,000 simulations and had a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs (21 percent chance of a division crown). This improvement is sizable, especially when it’s a wide receiver being added.

DOLPHINS REPLAY 2009

  WIN LOSS PCT DIV PLAY
Before trade 8.0 8.0 0.5 16.0 30.3
With Marshall 8.9 7.1 0.556 21.0 40.0
IMPACT 0.9 -0.9 0.056 5.0 9.7

Like all teams, the actual 2010 Dolphins forecast will depend significantly on the upcoming draft as well as future trades and free-agent signings. At least Miami knows it won’t need to take a wideout because, in addition to Marshall, it has quality secondary options in Davone Bess, Greg Camarillo and Ginn). 

Please visit AccuScore.com to make sure you are up to date with the latest game forecasts, which are updated throughout the week based on injury and weather updates.

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