AccuScore: Based on stats, McNabb trade gives Redskins boost, doesn’t hurt Eagles greatly
Article By Unknown on 5th April, 2010
Stephen Oh, AccuScore analyst
To evaluate Donovan McNabb's value to the Washington Redskins, AccuScore ran multiple simulations of the 2009 NFL season.
While the real Redskins went 4-12, the re-simulated 'Skins did better, averaging six wins (though still last in the NFC East). They even made the playoffs in 5.4 percent of simulations.
After adding McNabb and running backs Willie Parker and Larry Johnson, the Redskins improved by an average of 8.7 percentage points per game, which translates to 7.4 wins and a 14.1 percent occurrence of making the playoffs.
WIN LOSS PCT DIV PLAYOFF PPG Before trade 6 10 .375 2.20% 5.40% 19.5 w/ McNabb at QB 7.4 8.6 .463 6.80% 14.10% 22.4 IMPACT 1.4 -1.4 8.8% 4.60% 8.70% 2.9 The Redskins have even more reason to believe they can outperform this already optimistic forecast because young receivers Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas and tight end Fred Davis could all show significant improvement if they develop good chemistry with McNabb.
Also, the defense was in the top 10 in rushing yards per attempt and pass yards allowed. Tackle Albert Haynesworth and middle linebacker London Fletcher are fine run stoppers, and they can pressure the QB with Brian Orakpo and Andre Carter, who both had 11 sacks last season. If Washington can add playmakers in the secondary and improve on their 11 interceptions in 2009 to 16 or more, it can improve on its No. 18 rank in points allowed. Forcing more turnovers the Redskins sho...
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While the real Redskins went 4-12, the re-simulated 'Skins did better, averaging six wins (though still last in the NFC East). They even made the playoffs in 5.4 percent of simulations.
After adding McNabb and running backs Willie Parker and Larry Johnson, the Redskins improved by an average of 8.7 percentage points per game, which translates to 7.4 wins and a 14.1 percent occurrence of making the playoffs.
WIN LOSS PCT DIV PLAYOFF PPG Before trade 6 10 .375 2.20% 5.40% 19.5 w/ McNabb at QB 7.4 8.6 .463 6.80% 14.10% 22.4 IMPACT 1.4 -1.4 8.8% 4.60% 8.70% 2.9 The Redskins have even more reason to believe they can outperform this already optimistic forecast because young receivers Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas and tight end Fred Davis could all show significant improvement if they develop good chemistry with McNabb.
Also, the defense was in the top 10 in rushing yards per attempt and pass yards allowed. Tackle Albert Haynesworth and middle linebacker London Fletcher are fine run stoppers, and they can pressure the QB with Brian Orakpo and Andre Carter, who both had 11 sacks last season. If Washington can add playmakers in the secondary and improve on their 11 interceptions in 2009 to 16 or more, it can improve on its No. 18 rank in points allowed. Forcing more turnovers the Redskins sho...
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