Economic Policy

ISSUE SUMMARIES

Issue summaries provide a quick reference to Centrists.Org general principles and most important links, within each topic area.

Economic Growth (Basics)  
  Growth and Economic Policy
  Globalization and Adjustment  
  Charts, Graphs, and Data 

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Joint Statement On The Need For Pay-As-You-Go Discipline
6.23.2005 ||  The five organizations joining in this statement have warned that large, chronic budget deficits pose a threat to the economic health of our nation. For that reason, we are increasingly alarmed at the apparent willingness of lawmakers to propose new initiatives, without offsets, that would increase deficits in both the short and long term. At a time when fiscal policies should be focused on reducing deficits in recognition of the enormous strains that the retirement of the baby-boom generation will soon place on federal resources, failure to offset new initiatives on a pay-as-you-go basis would send a dangerous signal that fiscal discipline in Washington has all but disappeared. At the very least, lawmakers need to stop digging the hole deeper.

Bush's Economic Report Card:  Timely Stimulus, Poor "Bang for the Buck," Disastrous Budgeting
08.02.2004 ||  A new study by Economy.com gives the Bush Administration credit for recognizing the need for fiscal stimulus, but flunks its actual policies.

GDP Figures Imply Economic Stimulus Receding, But Recovery Still in Place
07.30.2004 ||  U.S. economic growth dropped to 3 percent in the second quarter.  Rising gas prices no doubt crimped consumer spending, and the economic stimulus that sparked a surge of growth last year is now dissipating.

Rising Health Costs Reduce Wage Growth
07.29.2004 ||  This morning's new Employment Cost Index data contain three lessons:  (1) in dollar terms, wages are growing at the slowest pace in 20 years, (2) adjusted for inflation, wage growth is falling again, and (3) rising health costs are one reason wage growth is so sluggish.

Charts:  Inflation Shows Signs of Settling Down
07.16.2004 ||  This morning's CPI report says prices continued to risk briskly in June, but "core" inflation -- excluding volatile energy and food prices -- is moderating.

Deficits for Stimulus Were OK.  But Now?  (CentristPolicyNetwork.Org)
07.14.2004 ||  President Bush and Senator Kerry should mimic Presidents Reagan and Clinton by advocating tax reforms and the reduction of long-term deficits.

Summer Economic Update -- Moderate Growth and Slowly Improving Labor Markets
07.09.2004 ||  The pace of job growth will probably stabilize at about 200,000 a month this summer, but this does not mean the unemployment rate will soon begin to fall.

Two Important Takes on President Reagan's Economic Legacy
06.09.2004 ||  Robert Samuelson's column Unsung Triumph says Reagan's biggest success was helping the Fed fight inflation.  A recent column by Brian Nottage of The Dismal Scientist applauds Reagan, but also argues that he fostered a "caricature of market economics." 

Chart:  "Core" CPI (Consumer Price Index Less Food and Energy)
05.14.2004 ||  On a year-over-year basis, core price inflation is still below 2 percent.  However, shorter-term trends are spiking higher.

More Good News on Jobs -- More Bad News on the Deficit
revised 05.13.2004 ||  The number of payroll jobs jumped in April, following a big gain in March.  These were the first bursts of job creation since the recession began in 2001.  The bad news is, the budget deficit keeps getting worse.  

Mortgaging the Future in Blueprint, the magazine of the Democratic Leadership Council
05.07.2004 ||  Large budget deficits and ultra-low interest rates provided an enormous economic stimulus over the last three years. We will eventually have to pay for that stimulus, either with higher taxes, lower government spending, or higher interest rates.

Latest Economic Data -- Growth, But No Cigar
04.30.2004 ||  Many economists expected the first quarter of 2004 to be a near-boom -- instead, it was just a pretty good quarter.

No Inflation Problem Yet
04.14.2004 ||  So far this year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up by 5 percent.  Inflation worries are suddenly fashionable, but the latest data are really not that bad.

Where the Jobs Aren't -- New BLS Data Confirm Gloomy Jobs Picture in 2003
04.07.2004 ||  New county-by-county figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show trends in employment and wages between September 2002 and September 2003. 

The March 2004 Jobs Report -- A Big Improvement
preliminary 04.02.2004 ||  The number of jobs grew by 308,000 in March, and the average job growth for the first three months of 2004 is now 170,000.

The Worrisome Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate
revised 03.05.2004 ||  If the labor force participation rate had remained steady at its March 2001 level, 2.8 million additional people would be counted as jobless, and the unemployment rate would be over 7 percent.

More Slow Job Growth -- Averaging the December and January Jobs Figures
revised 02.07.2004 ||  Underlying growth in the number of jobs is about 64,000 a month.  That remains too low to spark a robust economic recovery, or to significantly reduce the unemployment rate (now 5.6 percent).

Deep Cuts in Non-Security Spending and Rapid Economic Growth Won't Balance the Budget
preliminary 02.02.2004 ||  Wishing for deep cuts in non-defense, non-homeland security outlays will not re-balance the budget.  Neither will sustained super-fast economic growth.

CBO:  Faster Real GDP Growth, Lower Revenues, Higher Deficits and Interest Costs Ahead
01.26.2004 ||  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revised its economic projections higher for 2004 and 2005, but lowered its projections of federal revenues throughout the 10-year budgeting period. 

When Treasury Secretaries Attack!  (CentristPolicyNetwork.Org)
01.11.2004 ||  Former Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Paul O'Neill would teach us two vital lessons:  (1) confidence is an increasingly important driver of real economic behavior, and (2) hyper-politization of public policy can hurt confidence and growth prospects.

A Closer Look at the Latest Jobs Figures -- Plenty of Stimulus, a Scarcity of Confidence
01.11.2004 ||  Given the huge economic stimulus in place (large budget deficits and ultra-low interest rates), why is the jobs market so weak?  The dreadful budget outlook might be dimming the long-term economic outlook.

Preparing for CBO's Updated Baseline Projections and the President's New Budget
01.10.2004 ||  Next on the budget agenda:  deciphering the upcoming projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which will be released on January 27, and the new President's Budget, which is due on February 2.

Secretary Rubin's Theory of Budget Deficits, Economic Confidence, and Financial Crises
01.10.2004 ||  Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and economists Peter Orszag and Allen Sinai have written a new paper arguing that sustained budget deficits could spark a sudden economic and financial crisis. 

Projected Structural Budget Deficit for 2004:  $391 Billion
revised 11.18.2003 ||  Because the structural deficit is now so large, the argument that a return to robust economic growth will "solve" the deficit problem seems a stretch.

Is The Recovery Finally For Real?
11.03.2003 ||  On balance, the good economic news makes it likely that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will revise its economic projections and its forecast of federal revenues slightly higher in fiscal year 2004. 

Economic Perspective:  When Are Health Costs Excessive if $15,000 is Average?
10.01.2003 ||  In a Sept. 29 commentary in Tax Notes, economist Gene Steuerle fantasizes about a rational Medicare reform and prescription drug debate.

Interpreting the Diverging Employment Statistics
09.29.2003 ||  The labor market is probably best characterized as "flat."  It is not as bad as the declining payroll numbers indicate, but is not improving as much as the household numbers imply.

It's the Confidence, Stupid.  (CentristPolicyNetwork.Org)
09.05.2003 ||  How can the economy grow rapidly while the employment market remains so grim?  The immediate explanation is high productivity growth. But the real reason may be a lack of confidence in future economic growth.

New Economic Data, Charts, and Graphs Page
updated 08.01.2003 ||  Centrists.Org presents basic data on the economy, in downloadable graphics and tables.  Now includes jobs and unemployment data for July.

Economy Note:  GDP Growth 2.4% in 2nd Quarter; Jobs Report Tomorrow
07.31.2003 ||  Second quarter GDP growth came in at 2.4%, after a growth rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2003 and 1.4% in the last quarter of 2002.

JCT, CBO, Fed Agree:  Tax Cuts Don't "Pay For" Themselves, Could Hurt Economy.  
revised 07.01.2003 originally published 05.14.2003 ||  The Joint Committee on Taxation, Congressional Budget Office, and Federal Reserve have all produced recent studies debunking some of the claims of the most zealous tax cut proponents.