Near-Term Budget Outlook 

ISSUE SUMMARIES

Issue summaries provide a quick reference to Centrists.Org general principles and most important links, within each topic area.

Budget and Tax (Basics)
  Near-Term Budget Outlook
  Tax Reform
  Centrists.Org No-BS Long-Term Baseline 
  Budget Process

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Joint Statement On The Need For Pay-As-You-Go Discipline
6.23.2005 ||  The five organizations joining in this statement have warned that large, chronic budget deficits pose a threat to the economic health of our nation. For that reason, we are increasingly alarmed at the apparent willingness of lawmakers to propose new initiatives, without offsets, that would increase deficits in both the short and long term. At a time when fiscal policies should be focused on reducing deficits in recognition of the enormous strains that the retirement of the baby-boom generation will soon place on federal resources, failure to offset new initiatives on a pay-as-you-go basis would send a dangerous signal that fiscal discipline in Washington has all but disappeared. At the very least, lawmakers need to stop digging the hole deeper.

Does the Increase In Revenues Mean the Budget Outlook Has Turned Around?
5.10.05 ||  On May 5, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released new monthly budget figures, which indicates that if revenues and outlays maintain their current trend, the deficit will be better than forecast, possibly in the range of $350 billion.  This improvement is due almost entirely to higher than anticipated revenues.

The Spending Nobody's Talking About:  Interest and Non-War Related Discretionary Outlays
10.18.2004 ||  The fastest growing major categories of federal spending in 2005 are projected to be defense and war-related outlays (12.2 percent), interest on the public debt (11.9 percent), non-war related discretionary outlays (4.6 percent), and entitlements (4.2 percent).

Where Will the Deficit Go From Here?  New Long-Term Budget Projections
06.03. 2004 ||  Under realistic assumptions, the annual federal deficit is poised to hover around $400 billion through 2007, between 3 and 4 percent of GDP.  After that, the deficits will grow as the first waves of baby boomers leave the workforce and join the entitlement rolls.

More Good News on Jobs -- More Bad News on the Deficit
05.10.2004 ||  The number of payroll jobs jumped in April, following a big gain in March.  These were the first bursts of job creation since the recession began in 2001.  The bad news is, the budget deficit keeps getting worse.  

Budget Outlook Looking a Little Better in 2004?
04.08.2004 ||  New monthly budget figures imply that the deficit will be worse than last year, but a little better than forecast, possibly in the range of $425 to $450 billion. 

A "Duck-The-Issues" Budget -- Interpreting the Congressional Budget for 2005
revised 03.19.2004 ||  Will the Congressional budget really reduce the deficit?  The answer is "probably not."  This year's budget is a stop-gap measure that does not attempt to grapple with the larger fiscal problems facing the nation. 

CBO:  Budget Outlook Worsens Slightly, Medicare and Medicaid Spending Up
02.28.2004 ||  On Friday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a slightly more pessimistic "baseline" budget projection.  Higher Medicare and Medicaid outlays were the main culprit.

CBO:  Revenues Up Only 1 Percent So Far in FY 2004, Outlays Up 6 Percent
02.15.2004 ||  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its Monthly Budget Review on February 6, which shows the budget deficit continuing to worsen.

Deep Cuts in Non-Security Spending and Rapid Economic Growth Won't Balance the Budget
preliminary 02.02.2004 ||  Wishing for deep cuts in non-defense, non-homeland security outlays will not re-balance the budget.  Neither will sustained super-fast economic growth.

CBO:  Faster Real GDP Growth, Lower Revenues, Higher Deficits and Interest Costs Ahead
01.26.2004 ||  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) revised its economic projections higher for 2004 and 2005, but lowered its projections of federal revenues throughout the 10-year budgeting period. 

No-BS Long-Term Budget Baseline (Jan. 2004) 
01.26.2004 ||  Based on updated projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which were released earlier today, Centrists.Org's new budget baseline shows persistent deficits, in spite of rapid economic growth. 

Preparing for CBO's Updated Baseline Projections and the President's New Budget
01.10.2004 ||  Next on the budget agenda:  deciphering the upcoming projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which will be released on January 27, and the new President's Budget, which is due on February 2.

Commentary:  CBO's New Long-Term Budget Projections
12.22.2003 ||  CBO's new budget projections should help move lawmakers past the denial phase on the federal deficit.

Projected Structural Budget Deficit for 2004:  $391 Billion
revised 11.18.2003 ||  Because the structural deficit is now so large, the argument that a return to robust economic growth will "solve" the deficit problem seems a stretch.

Is The Recovery Finally For Real?
11.03.2003 ||  On balance, the good economic news makes it likely that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will revise its economic projections and its forecast of federal revenues slightly higher in fiscal year 2004. 

Preliminary 2003 Budget Deficit:  $374 Billion
10.10.2003 ||  The deficit will be lower than CBO's earlier forecast of $401 billion.  However, the new figures do not imply that the deficit forecast for 2004 -- almost $500 billion -- should be changed.

Faster GDP Growth Won't Solve the Budget Problem
09.06.2003 ||  Congress has not yet accepted the fact that taxes will have to be raised and spending cut to re-balance the federal budget.  But there is little chance the budget can be balanced without those actions.

It's the Confidence, Stupid.  (CentristPolicyNetwork.Org)
09.05.2003 ||  How can the economy grow rapidly while the employment market remains so grim?  The immediate explanation is high productivity growth. But the real reason may be a lack of confidence in future economic growth.

A Preliminary Assessment of CBO's New Budget Projections
revised 08.29.2003 ||  Under realistic assumptions, the deficit will be $500 billion in 2004 and will total $6.1 trillion between 2004 and 2013.  The public debt will rise from $4 trillion this year to $10 trillion a decade from now.  (And after that, things really get bad.)

Budget Update:  New CBO Estimates Likely To Show $400 Billion Deficit in 2003; $500 Billion in 2004
08.18.2003 ||  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will release new 10-year projections on August 26, and Centrists.Org's long-term projections will be updated shortly thereafter.

Economy Note:  GDP Growth 2.4% in 2nd Quarter; Jobs Report Tomorrow
07.31.2003 ||  Second quarter GDP growth came in at 2.4%, after a growth rate of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2003 and 1.4% in the last quarter of 2002.

Centrists.Org No-BS Budget Baseline
updated 07.20.2003 ||  Centrists.Org's budget baseline shows a deficit of $4.9 trillion over 10 years.  This update includes the latest short-term trends for 2003 and 2004 based on the Administration's Mid-Session Budget.  Long-term projections are mostly unchanged from June 22.

An Analysis of the Administration's Mid-Session Budget
07.15.2003 ||  The Administration estimates the federal deficit will be $455 billion in 2003 and $475 billion in 2004, about 4 percent of GDP. 

First 3 Quarters of FY 2003:  Revenues Down 4%, Spending Up 8%
07.11.2003 ||  Latest figures from CBO's Monthly Budget Review verify Centrists.Org baseline prediction of $400+ billion deficits.

Time for a Tax and Budget Reform Commission
(CentristPolicyNetwork.Org)
07.09.2003 ||  Creating this Commission would show balanced leadership, deep concern for the future, and a desire for sound, long-term policymaking.

From Roll Call, July 7, 2003 (www.rollcall.com)
On Medicare and Budget Numbers, CBO is Failing
"Congress is poised to enact a Medicare drug benefit based on bad information. The Congressional Budget Office has failed its duty to provide lawmakers with a thorough and balanced analysis..."

Centrists.Org No-BS Budget Baseline
updated 06.22.2003 ||  Centrists.Org's politically realistic budget baseline now shows a 10-year budget deficit of almost $5 trillion.  This update includes the latest trends for 2003, and assumes enactment of a 10-year $400 billion Medicare drug benefit, which now seems probable. 

Centrists.Org No-BS Budget Baseline
updated 05.24.2003 ||  Several times a year, Centrists.Org computes a gimmick-free budget that includes realistic assumptions about baseline spending and revenues.  This update includes enactment of the "Jobs and Growth" tax cut package.

JCT, CBO, Fed Agree:  Tax Cuts Don't "Pay For" Themselves, Could Hurt Economy.  
revised 07.01.2003 originally published 05.14.2003 ||  The Joint Committee on Taxation, Congressional Budget Office, and Federal Reserve have all produced recent studies debunking some of the claims of the most zealous tax cut proponents.  

April Revenues Weak:  FY 2003 Deficit Likely to Top $350 Billion
05.10.2003 ||  CBO reports smallest April surplus since 1995.

Centrists.Org No-BS Budget Baseline
05.10.2003 ||  Several times a year, Centrists.Org computes a gimmick-free budget that includes realistic assumptions about baseline spending and revenues.  This update reflects probable enactment of the Senate's $350 billion tax cut package.