Charts and Tables:  Comparing Social Security Reform Proposals 
Jeff Lemieux

For the Senate Special Committee on Aging
June 15, 2004

PDF printable version of these charts and tables.

Figure 1.  Four Big Entitlements
Figure 2.  Social Security Costs and Revenues (Baseline)
Figure 3.  Social Security Surplus or Deficit (Baseline)
Table 1.   Social Security Costs and Reform Options
Figure 4.  Social Security Costs (Baseline, Graham, Ferrara)
Figure 5.  Social Security Surplus or Deficit (Baseline and Kolbe-Stenholm)
Figure 6.  Social Security Revenues (Baseline and Diamond-Orszag)
Table 2.   Simulation of Sen. Lindsey Graham Proposal, Married Workers Retiring at NRA in 2034
Table 3.   Simulation of Sen. Lindsey Graham Proposal, Single Workers Retiring at Age 62 in 2041
Figure 7.  Social Security Costs and Revenues (CBO vs. Trustees)
Figure 8.  Social Security Surplus or Deficit (CBO vs. Trustees)
Table 4.   Social Security Costs and Revenues (CBO vs. Trustees)

Figure 1.




Figure 2.




Figure 3.

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Table 1.

Social Security Costs and Reform Options
(as a percent of GDP)
Selected Years		2010	2020	2030	2040	2050	2060
Baseline Benefit Costs		4.3	5.3	6.3	6.5	6.5	6.5
"Dedicated" Revenues		5.0	5.0	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.7
Gap		-0.7	0.3	1.3	1.6	1.7	1.8
Reform Options:
Sen. Lindsey Graham		1.1	0.9	0.3	-0.5	-1.3	-2.0
Kolbe-Stenholm		0.6	0.2	-0.2	-0.7	-1.2	-1.5
Peter Ferrara		2.4	2.2	1.3	0.2	-1.2	-2.0
Diamond-Orszag		-0.3	-0.3	-0.5	-0.8	-1.1	-1.5
Misc: Tax Max at $140k		-0.3	-0.3	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2

Source:  Centrists.Org
Note:  Date from the 2004 Trustees Report and other reports from Social Security's Office of the Actuary.

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Figure 4.




Figure 5.




Figure 6. 

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Table 2.

Simulation of Sen. Lindsey Graham Social Security
Proposal, Married Workers Retiring at NRA in 2034
Assuming Normal (60% Stock, 40% Bond) Investment Returns
(all amounts in 2003 dollars)
Average	Average	Average	Annual
Annual	Annual	Annual	Earnings
Earnings	Earnings	Earnings	Above
(each spouse)	(each spouse)	(each spouse)	(each spouse)
$16,600	$34,700	$55,600	$87,000
Current Law Monthly Benefit Promised (Not Funded)
860	1,417	1,879	2,294
Proposed Law Defined Benefit
590	822	1,180	1,505
Benefit from Individual Account (Basic Contribution)
232	381	417	415
Range of Benefit from Matched Contributions \a
80	6	0	0
414	29	0	0
Range of Proposed Law Benefit (Total)
902	1,209	1,597	1,920
1,236	1,232	1,597	1,920
Source: Centrists.Org.
Notes: Assumes default investment returns based on 60%
stock, 40% "safe" long-term bond return. Based on
couples with equal work careers and earnings.
Couples have typical earnings profile (except
highest-earning couple assumed to have earnings
at or above the taxable maximum in all years). It is
important to remember that comparisons with currently
promised benefits may be misleading if the government
would not be able to fund those promises in the future.
Calculations do not include income from unmatched
voluntary contributions. NRA = normal retirement age.
\a Low range of benefit from matched contribution assumes
low-income worker voluntarily saves $101 per year and
receives gov't match of $150. High range assumes low-
income worker voluntarily saves $801 per year and
receives maximum gov't match or $500.

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Table 3. 

Simulation of Sen. Lindsey Graham Social Security
Proposal, Single Workers Retiring at Age 62 in 2041
Assuming Normal (60% Stock, 40% Bond) Investment Returns
(all amounts in 2003 dollars)
Minimum	Low	Average	High	Annual
Wage	Wage	Wage	Wage	Earnings
Earner	Earner	Earner	Earner	Above
$10,712	$16,600	$34,700	$55,600	$87,000
Current Law Monthly Benefit Promised (Not Funded)
636	774	1,285	1,699	2,052
Proposed Defined Benefit and Basic Individual Account Benefit
684	723	1,115	1,407	1,655
Range of Benefit from Matched Contributions \a
151	151	12	0	0
783	784	64	0	0
Range of Proposed Law Benefit (Total)
835	874	1,127	1,407	1,655
1,467	1,507	1,179	1,407	1,655
Source: Centrists.Org.
Notes: Assumes default investment returns based on 60%
stock, 40% "safe" long-term bond return. Based on
single workers with typical earnings profile (except.
highest-earning worker assumed to have earnings
at or above the taxable maximum in all years, and min.
wage worker assumed same wage all years). It is
important to remember that comparisons with currently
promised benefits may be misleading if the government
would not be able to fund those promises in the future.
Calculations do not include income from unmatched
voluntary contributions.
\a Low range of benefit from matched contribution assumes
low-income worker voluntarily saves $101 per year and
receives gov't match of $150. High range assumes low-
income worker voluntarily saves $801 per year and
receives maximum gov't match or $500.

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Figure 7.




Figure 8.

 

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Table 4.

Social Security Costs and Revenues -- CBO vs. Trustees
(as a percent of GDP)
Selected Years		2010	2020	2030	2040	2050	2060
CBO (June 2004)
Benefit Costs		4.4	5.2	6.1	6.2	6.3	6.4
"Dedicated" Revenues		5.0	5.1	5.1	5.0	5.0	5.0
Gap		-0.6	0.1	1.0	1.2	1.3	1.5
2004 Trustees Report
Benefit Costs		4.3	5.3	6.3	6.5	6.5	6.5
"Dedicated" Revenues		5.0	5.0	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.7
Gap		-0.7	0.3	1.3	1.6	1.7	1.8
Source: Centrists.Org
Notes: Data from 2004 Social Security Trustees Report and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
"The Outlook for Social Security" (June 2004). Figures may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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