CBO vs. Trustees on Social Security: A New Model Tells A Similar Story preliminary June 14, 2004
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) this morning released a new report on Social Security's long-term outlook. Because CBO's cost figures are slightly lower than the Social Security Trustees Report within the 2020 - 2060 period, and because CBO's outlook for revenues is slightly higher after 2040, the media reports will say things like "the new figures show Social Security outlook is improving."
However, a quick glance at Figure 1 and Figure 2 below shows that CBO's new model is really telling us the same story: Social Security benefits will jump by about 2 percentage points of GDP over the next 25 years, while revenues stay roughly flat. For policymaking purposes, there is no real difference between CBO's new overall cost and revenue outlook and that of the Social Security actuaries. CBO's new cost projection for Social Security is almost identical to Centrists.Org's No-BS Long-Term Baseline.
Charts:
Figure 1. Social Security Costs and Revenues
Figure 2. Social Security Surplus or Deficit
Table 1. Social Security Costs and Revenues (by 10 Year Increments)
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Table 1.
| Social Security Costs and Revenues |
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|
| (as a percent of GDP) |
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| |
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|
| Selected Years |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
2060 |
| |
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|
|
|
|
| CBO (June 2004) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Benefit Costs |
4.4 |
5.2 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
6.3 |
6.4 |
| "Dedicated" Revenues |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
| Gap |
|
-0.6 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2004 Trustees Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Benefit Costs |
4.3 |
5.3 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
| "Dedicated" Revenues |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
| Gap |
|
-0.7 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Source: Centrists.Org |
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| Notes: Data from 2004 Social Security Trustees Report and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) |
| "The Outlook for Social Security" (June 2004). Figures may not sum to totals because of rounding. |
Links:Congressional Budget Office
The Outlook for Social Security (June 2004)
2004 Social Security
Trustees ReportCentrists.Org
No-BS Long-Term Budget BaselineCentrists.Org Issue Summary:
Social Security ReformCentrists.Org Issue Summary:
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