Preliminary 2003 Budget Deficit:  $374 Billion 
Jeff Lemieux
October 10, 2003

A preliminary CBO analysis of the daily Treasury statements implies a deficit of $374 billion in fiscal year 2003, about $27 billion less than the earlier projection of $401 billion.  Based on the preliminary data, the gap between the earlier projection and the latest figures is split roughly evenly between higher-than expected revenues and lower-than-expected outlays.

The slight increase in revenues may have been the result of more rapid economic growth in the 2nd and 3rd quarters (the last two quarters of the fiscal year).  However, these new figures are sufficiently close to CBO's original projection that they don't indicate any reason to change the deficit projection for 2004, which is about $500 billion.

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Comparison of CBO August Budget Forecast and Preliminary Actual Figures, Fiscal Year 2003 (in billions of dollars)

 

	CBO August	Preliminary
	Forecast	2003 Actual	Difference
Outlays	2170	2157	-13
Income Taxes	791	794	3
Payroll Taxes	710	713	3
Corporate Taxes	125	132	7
Other	144	144	0
Total, Revenues	1770	1783	13
Deficit	401	374	-27

Sources:  Centrists.Org, Congressional Budget Office

Note:  Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.

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Links:
Congressional Budget Office Monthly Budget Review (October 9, 2003)

Centrists.Org Long Term No-BS Budget Baseline Homepage