First 3 Quarters of FY2003:  Revenues Down 4%, Spending Up 8%
Jeff Lemieux
July 11, 2003

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that federal revenues through the first 3 quarters of fiscal year 2003 are down 3.6 percent over the comparable period last year.  Outlays (excluding interest) are up 8.1 percent.  Including interest payment (which are down due to ultra-low interest rates), outlays are up 6.7 percent.  These figures are why CBO now projects a budget deficit of over $400 billion in FY2003.

Here are the relevant tables from CBO's Monthly Budget Reveiw for July:

RECEIPTS THROUGH JUNE (In billions of dollars)

		October-June					Percentage
Major Source		FY2002   FY2003					Change
Individual Income		643		603			‑6.3
Corporate Income		116		98			‑15.2
Social Insurance		535		545			1.7
Other		107		106			‑0.8
	Total	1,401		1,352			‑3.6
SOURCES:  Department of the Treasury; CBO.

OUTLAYS THROUGH JUNE (In billions of dollars)

								Percentage
			October-June					Change
Major Category			FY2002   FY2003					Actual		Adjusteda
Defense—Military			245		284			16.1		14.9
Social Security    Benefits			334		348			4.2		4.2
Medicare			189		206			9.0		7.2
Medicaid			110		118			7.3		7.3
Unemployment
Insurance			40		44			11.1		11.1
Other Programs    and Activities			464		496			7.0		7.6
	Subtotal		1,383		1,498			8.3		8.1
Net Interest on the    Public Debt			135		125			‑7.3		‑7.3
		Total	1,518		1,623			6.9		6.7
SOURCES:  Department of the Treasury; CBO.
a.  Excludes the effects of payments that were shifted because of week­ends, holidays, legislative action, or changes in the accounting for certain health payments of the Department of Defense.

Interestingly, payroll tax revenues are only up 1.7 percent over last year.  In this case, that is an indication of slow economic growth, virtually no inflation, and stagnant labor markets.

Centrists.Org now projects deficits will exceed $400 billion in both 2003 and 2004, and will total almost $5 trillion over the 10-year budget period between 2004 and 2013.

Links:
Congressional Budget Office Monthly Budget Review (July 9, 2003)
Centrists.Org No-BS Long-Term Budget Baseline (updated June 22, 2003)