Sporting News’ team of former scouts talk about 10 things to watch for during wild-card weekend.
1. Passing game takes center stage.
Ten quarterbacks surpassed 4,000 passing yards this season, and seven of them are in the playoffs — another sign that the NFL has become a pass-first entity.
Some of that has to do with a greater emphasis on spread offenses and rules changes that work to the detriment of defenses. Whatever the reason, the pass-first mentality is working, so expect more of it in the playoffs.
2. Nice to see you again.
Three of the four games this weekend are rematches of games from Week 17 and one — Eagles vs. Cowboys — represents the third meeting between those teams.
Since 1970, there have been 19 opportunities for a team to complete a three-game sweep. Contrary to popular belief that it is darn-near impossible to pull that off, 12 teams have completed the trifecta. That doesn’t bode particularly well for the Eagles, who were swept by the Cowboys in the regular season.
The Jets will test Carson Palmer’s ability to beat the blitz.
3. J-E-T-S will B-L-I-T-Z.
Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is one cool customer, and it shows in the way he handles himself under pressure. He’s not real mobile, but he is able to stand in against pressure, make quick decisions, find his checkdowns and avoid sacks.
In fact, he ranks second in the NFL in passing efficiency against the blitz, which is why teams rarely go after him. But expect the Jets to buck the trend. Rex Ryan has lived by the blitz his whole career, and he’s not about to stop now.
The Bengals don’t use their tight ends or backs as receivers very often, and the Jets are confident in their ability to single-cover the Bengals’ wideouts — especially Darrelle Revis against Chad Ochocinco. That will free up players for Ryan to blitz. Look for New York to send five or six rushers on most snaps.
4. Bengals will play the run better.
The Jets were the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL this season, and they were able to grind out 257 yards on the ground against the Bengals last week. So it seems clear that the Bengals’ defense will have to focus on stopping the run this time. But the Jets will try to disguise their intentions with multiple formations and motion and pass looks at the line of scrimmage.
The key for the Bengals is not to fall for it. They will have to play the run on early downs and force quarterback Mark Sanchez into third-and-long situations, which is where he has struggled the most this season. Left end Robert Geathers will be back on the field this week, which should help the run defense tremendously and keep the Jets’ backs from gaining the edge on off-tackle runs.
5. Eagles’ backs will be keys to the passing game.
Last week, the Cowboys shut down the Eagles’ running game, limiting them to 3.7 yards per carry on just 10 attempts. Much of the trouble started up front, where the loss of center Jamaal Jackson hurt the team’s ability to keep Dallas nose tackle Jay Ratliff and his teammates out of the backfield.
Philadelphia will try to counter that weakness by using its backs more in the passing game. Considering Brian Westbrook is back to full strength and that fullback Leonard Weaver and rookie LeSean McCoy combined for 55 catches this year, expect a healthy dose of the screen game and short passes off quick drops by Donovan McNabb.
6. Cowboys will run — and run some more.
One of the keys to the Cowboys’ season-ending three-game winning streak was their offensive balance. In those games, they ran the ball at least 30 times for an average of 4.4 yards per carry. That, in turn, helped the passing game to be more productive.
Dallas should use its stable of backs to work the inside-outside game. This will wear down the Eagles’ smaller defensive front and create favorable passing situations. Watch for Tony Romo to exploit the Eagles’ linebackers in coverage.
Baltimore’s ground-and-pound strategy will be even stronger with an effective Willis McGahee.
7. Ravens should get McGahee involved.
Ray Rice has been stellar this season, rushing for more than 100 yards four times and averaging 5.3 yards per carry. But Willis McGahee showed he has a fresh pair of legs for the playoffs by busting out for 167 yards and three TDs on just 16 carries against the Raiders last week. The combination of the two can be deadly behind the team’s personnel groupings and unbalanced alignments.
Baltimore has finally gotten back to the run game and will need to stick with it against a Patriots team that is ranked 13th in the league but has been a bit vulnerable in the last month. The Ravens need to try to dominate time of possession and keep their suspect secondary off the field.
8. Patriots will stick to the game plan.
Some people contend the loss of wideout Wes Welker will be devastating to the Patriots. But those people are forgetting the Patriot Way. When Drew Bledsoe goes down, you plug in Tom Brady. When Tedy Bruschi goes down, you plug in Jerod Mayo. When Wes Welker goes down, you plug in Julian Edelman.
A Welker look-alike, Edelman is a former college QB who made an impact as a rookie with 37 catches, including 10 last week as Welker’s replacement. Though he lacks Welker’s lateral burst, Edelman has good quickness, solid hands and excellent awareness. New England will attack a weak Baltimore secondary with the pass, and Edelman will be a key part of that effort.
9. Woodson should be the focus of Packers’ D.
Green Bay has taken to coordinator Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme in a big way. The front seven has been effective against the run and the pass. Perhaps most important, the Packers have given cornerback Charles Woodson the green light to make plays all over the field.
The Packers shouldn’t have Woodson, the NFL’s likely defensive player of the year, shadow Pro Bowl wideout Larry Fitzgerald all day. Woodson’s strengths are that he can do so many things well and be effective from anywhere on the field. Look for Capers to move Woodson around, depending on down and distance and game situations. That will force Kurt Warner and the rest of the offense to find him before they run a play.
Good teams put their playmakers in position to make plays in the playoffs. And Woodson is the top defensive playmaker in the league.
10. Defense will be Arizona’s key.
Everyone knows about the Cardinals’ high-flying offense, led by Warner and their great wideouts. But the defense has quietly put together a very strong season, especially in big games.
The Cardinals are sixth in the league in sacks and third-down defense, and they have been strong in the red zone. Coordinator Bill Davis runs an aggressive scheme that uses a lot of different blitz looks out of the team’s base 3-4. It all revolves around the excellent play the team gets out of its cover corners. If Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is out or hampered because of a bruised knee, however, Davis may have to be more conservative.
RealScouts analyzes NFL and college players, coaches and teams exclusively for Sporting News.
Sporting News’ team of former scouts talk about 10 things to watch for during wild-card weekend.
1. Passing game takes center stage.
Ten quarterbacks surpassed 4,000 passing yards this season, and seven of them are in the playoffs — another sign that the NFL has become a pass-first entity.
Some of that has to do with a greater emphasis on spread offenses and rules changes that work to the detriment of defenses. Whatever the reason, the pass-first mentality is working, so expect more of it in the playoffs.
2. Nice to see you again.
Three of the four games this weekend are rematches of games from Week 17 and one — Eagles vs. Cowboys — represents the third meeting between those teams.
Since 1970, there have been 19 opportunities for a team to complete a three-game sweep. Contrary to popular belief that it is darn-near impossible to pull that off, 12 teams have completed the trifecta. That doesn’t bode particularly well for the Eagles, who were swept by the Cowboys in the regular season.
The Jets will test Carson Palmer’s ability to beat the blitz.
3. J-E-T-S will B-L-I-T-Z.
Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is one cool customer, and it shows in the way he handles himself under pressure. He’s not real mobile, but he is able to stand in against pressure, make quick decisions, find his checkdowns and avoid sacks.
In fact, he ranks second in the NFL in passing efficiency against the blitz, which is why teams rarely go after him. But expect the Jets to buck the trend. Rex Ryan has lived by the blitz his whole career, and he’s not about to stop now.
The Bengals don’t use their tight ends or backs as receivers very often, and the Jets are confident in their ability to single-cover the Bengals’ wideouts — especially Darrelle Revis against Chad Ochocinco. That will free up players for Ryan to blitz. Look for New York to send five or six rushers on most snaps.
4. Bengals will play the run better.
The Jets were the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL this season, and they were able to grind out 257 yards on the ground against the Bengals last week. So it seems clear that the Bengals’ defense will have to focus on stopping the run this time. But the Jets will try to disguise their intentions with multiple formations and motion and pass looks at the line of scrimmage.
The key for the Bengals is not to fall for it. They will have to play the run on early downs and force quarterback Mark Sanchez into third-and-long situations, which is where he has struggled the most this season. Left end Robert Geathers will be back on the field this week, which should help the run defense tremendously and keep the Jets’ backs from gaining the edge on off-tackle runs.
5. Eagles’ backs will be keys to the passing game.
Last week, the Cowboys shut down the Eagles’ running game, limiting them to 3.7 yards per carry on just 10 attempts. Much of the trouble started up front, where the loss of center Jamaal Jackson hurt the team’s ability to keep Dallas nose tackle Jay Ratliff and his teammates out of the backfield.
Philadelphia will try to counter that weakness by using its backs more in the passing game. Considering Brian Westbrook is back to full strength and that fullback Leonard Weaver and rookie LeSean McCoy combined for 55 catches this year, expect a healthy dose of the screen game and short passes off quick drops by Donovan McNabb.
6. Cowboys will run — and run some more.
One of the keys to the Cowboys’ season-ending three-game winning streak was their offensive balance. In those games, they ran the ball at least 30 times for an average of 4.4 yards per carry. That, in turn, helped the passing game to be more productive.
Dallas should use its stable of backs to work the inside-outside game. This will wear down the Eagles’ smaller defensive front and create favorable passing situations. Watch for Tony Romo to exploit the Eagles’ linebackers in coverage.
Baltimore’s ground-and-pound strategy will be even stronger with an effective Willis McGahee.
7. Ravens should get McGahee involved.
Ray Rice has been stellar this season, rushing for more than 100 yards four times and averaging 5.3 yards per carry. But Willis McGahee showed he has a fresh pair of legs for the playoffs by busting out for 167 yards and three TDs on just 16 carries against the Raiders last week. The combination of the two can be deadly behind the team’s personnel groupings and unbalanced alignments.
Baltimore has finally gotten back to the run game and will need to stick with it against a Patriots team that is ranked 13th in the league but has been a bit vulnerable in the last month. The Ravens need to try to dominate time of possession and keep their suspect secondary off the field.
8. Patriots will stick to the game plan.
Some people contend the loss of wideout Wes Welker will be devastating to the Patriots. But those people are forgetting the Patriot Way. When Drew Bledsoe goes down, you plug in Tom Brady. When Tedy Bruschi goes down, you plug in Jerod Mayo. When Wes Welker goes down, you plug in Julian Edelman.
A Welker look-alike, Edelman is a former college QB who made an impact as a rookie with 37 catches, including 10 last week as Welker’s replacement. Though he lacks Welker’s lateral burst, Edelman has good quickness, solid hands and excellent awareness. New England will attack a weak Baltimore secondary with the pass, and Edelman will be a key part of that effort.
9. Woodson should be the focus of Packers’ D.
Green Bay has taken to coordinator Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme in a big way. The front seven has been effective against the run and the pass. Perhaps most important, the Packers have given cornerback Charles Woodson the green light to make plays all over the field.
The Packers shouldn’t have Woodson, the NFL’s likely defensive player of the year, shadow Pro Bowl wideout Larry Fitzgerald all day. Woodson’s strengths are that he can do so many things well and be effective from anywhere on the field. Look for Capers to move Woodson around, depending on down and distance and game situations. That will force Kurt Warner and the rest of the offense to find him before they run a play.
Good teams put their playmakers in position to make plays in the playoffs. And Woodson is the top defensive playmaker in the league.
10. Defense will be Arizona’s key.
Everyone knows about the Cardinals’ high-flying offense, led by Warner and their great wideouts. But the defense has quietly put together a very strong season, especially in big games.
The Cardinals are sixth in the league in sacks and third-down defense, and they have been strong in the red zone. Coordinator Bill Davis runs an aggressive scheme that uses a lot of different blitz looks out of the team’s base 3-4. It all revolves around the excellent play the team gets out of its cover corners. If Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is out or hampered because of a bruised knee, however, Davis may have to be more conservative.
RealScouts analyzes NFL and college players, coaches and teams exclusively for Sporting News.
ProFootballTalk.com’s Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Wild Card Week:
1. High pressure for the Cowboys
As first-round playoff games go, the Dallas Cowboys are dealing with as much pressure as any playoff team ever has faced.
First, the team hasn’t won a playoff game since Dec. 28, 1996.
Second, the Cowboys have twice before blown a home playoff game against a division rival they swept in the regular season. This time around, they’ll be expected to reprise their 24-0 spanking of the Eagles from only six days before.
Third, Wade Phillips — who has never won a playoff game in three stints as a head coach — is coaching for his job.
Though it’s inevitable Dallas will win a playoff game someday, winning on Saturday will entail Phillips and the rest of the Cowboys overcoming an inordinate amount of stress and strain.
2. The start of the Jason Garrett era?
Many league insiders believe Cowboys owner Jerry Jones will fire coach Wade Phillips if the Cowboys fail to complete a three-game sweep of the Eagles on Saturday.
The fact that Phillips wouldn’t be entitled to a buyout makes it more likely that Jones would walk away from the option on Phillips’ contract for 2010.
Brad Smith surprised the Bengals last week; don’t expect that to be the case this week.
The fact that offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is under contract for two more years at $3.5 million per season makes it more likely that, if Phillips goes, Garrett will get the job.
At one point, it appeared Jones would simply clean house. The Cowboys’ late-season push to the playoffs could save Garrett, especially if it’s the defense and not the offense that blows it for the Cowboys on Saturday.
3. Rex Ryan just can’t help himself
The Jets had the Bengals right where they wanted them. Regardless of whether the Bengals did or didn’t try to win on Sunday night, the AFC North champions undoubtedly were rattled by that 37-0 pounding. And so with the league’s best defense and a potent running game, the Jets seem to be poised to roll into Cincinnati and do to the Bengals what the Bengals so proudly did to the Ravens and Steelers this year — beat them twice.
But then Jets coach Rex Ryan decided to pop off, declaring that his team should be favored not only to win on the second Saturday in January but also on the first Sunday in February.
And with that declaration, Ryan gave Bengals coach Marvin Lewis all he needed to get his team to forget about the beating they took in Week 17 — and to administer one of their own in the wild-card round.
What better way to get past a moment that might have sapped the team’s confidence than by changing the focus to yet another comment from Ryan suggesting that he’s too big for his britches?
4. Carson Palmer needs to prove the doubters wrong
Given that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer missed most of the 2008 season with a bum elbow and given that he’s not having a great year, a lot of people think he’s still suffering from the injury, and that the Bengals are hiding it just like the Jets did last year down the stretch with Brett Favre’s bad arm.
If Palmer is fine, then he needs to demonstrate it — convincingly — on Saturday.
But the evidence suggests something is wrong. He has thrown for more than 300 yards only once this year, and he has produced fewer than 200 yards seven times.
Last week, he had none.
Regardless of whether it’s Palmer or the guys catching his passes, Palmer is the leader of the team, and it’s on him to try to propel the Bengals to their first postseason win in a generation.
Ravens QB Joe Flacco figures to see a lot of blitz pressure from the Patriots’ defense on Sunday.
5. Flacco could be the difference maker
The Ravens have been successful over the past decade with a great defense and an offense good enough to score points with the field position the defense gives it.
In his second NFL season, quarterback Joe Flacco has increased his level of play significantly, with more than 600 additional passing yards, the same number of interceptions (12) and seven more touchdown passes (21).
So if the Ravens want to contend for a championship, they’ll need to remove the training wheels. Last year, Flacco threw for 135, 161, and 141 yards in three postseason games. This time around, they need to get the ball into the air more often, especially if opposing defenses — like the Patriots on Sunday — plan to try to take away Willis McGahee and Ray Rice.
6. A little New York hypocrisy
After the Dolphins beat the Jets in October with a heavy dose of the Wildcat, New York linebacker Calvin Pace couldn’t hold his tongue.
"I’m going to be honest, I can’t respect that stuff," he said at the time. "All that Wildcat. Because we’re in the NFL, man. If you’re out there running that nonsense, it’s crap."
And, of course, the Jets have since taken to the Wildcat, using Brad Smith as a change-of-pace quarterback. Smith rushed for 92 yards on four carries in the playoff-clinching win over Cincinnati.
If not for all that "nonsense" and "crap," the Jets might be sitting at home this weekend.
7. Get a good look at Kurt Warner
When Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner signed a two-year contract in the offseason, it was assumed he’d play two more years.
But Warner gave serious thought to calling it quits a year ago, and there’s a good chance he’ll decide after the 2009 season ends to pack it in.
The farther the team progresses, the more likely he is to ride into the sunset. If they win the Super Bowl, he surely won’t return. The question is whether he’ll give it another try in 2010 if they fall short of the mark again.
Still, even if they lose Sunday — and there’s a good chance they will — Warner might decide that he has done enough to get to Canton, and in turn decide he needs to get out before he takes any more concussions like the one that caused him to miss the game at Tennessee in late November.
8. Vikings are surely rooting for the Cowboys again
In Week 17, the Minnesota Vikings clobbered the Giants. The Vikes then needed help from the Cowboys to nail down a bye.
So with the Cowboys beating the Eagles and securing the third seed, a win by the Cowboys will send Dallas to Minnesota for the divisional round.
A victory by Philly would result in the sixth seed heading to New Orleans, with the winner of the Packers-Cardinals game going to Minnesota.
And if the Packers win, they’ll get another crack at Brett Favre — with a much better team than when the two teams got together in early October and early November.
So the Vikings surely are hoping for the Cowboys to knock off the Eagles again, even if it means a rematch of the 1975 division-round game featuring a Hail Mary pass and a flying whiskey bottle.
9. Packers quietly have gotten their act together
After losing to the Vikings and Favre at home on Nov. 1, the Packers stumbled badly against the Buccaneers. Since then, however, Mike McCarthy’s team has won all but one of its games.
The winning streak would be eight but for that last-second wing-and-a-rosary from Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to receiver Mike Wallace.
Along the way, the defense has improved (but for the 37 points given up to the Steelers) and the offensive line has done a better job of keeping quarterback Aaron Rodgers in one piece.
So it’s not unrealistic for Green Bay fans to be dreaming of another Super Bowl win, even with the quarterback who took them to their last one playing for an arch rival.
10. After this weekend, weather likely won’t be a factor
Though the Ravens and Jets are both built to win in the elements, the only games involving elements for the entire postseason might be the games featuring the Ravens and Jets this weekend.
Three of the teams that earned byes play in domes, and the other plays in San Diego.
So unless there are multiple division-round upsets this year, there might not be much cold or wind or snow this time around.
Which means that teams with high-powered passing offenses will have an edge.
Until they get to Miami and it rains the entire game, like it did three years ago.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
ProFootballTalk.com’s Mike Florio weighs in on the biggest story lines of Wild Card Week:
1. High pressure for the Cowboys
As first-round playoff games go, the Dallas Cowboys are dealing with as much pressure as any playoff team ever has faced.
First, the team hasn’t won a playoff game since Dec. 28, 1996.
Second, the Cowboys have twice before blown a home playoff game against a division rival they swept in the regular season. This time around, they’ll be expected to reprise their 24-0 spanking of the Eagles from only six days before.
Third, Wade Phillips — who has never won a playoff game in three stints as a head coach — is coaching for his job.
Though it’s inevitable Dallas will win a playoff game someday, winning on Saturday will entail Phillips and the rest of the Cowboys overcoming an inordinate amount of stress and strain.
2. The start of the Jason Garrett era?
Many league insiders believe Cowboys owner Jerry Jones will fire coach Wade Phillips if the Cowboys fail to complete a three-game sweep of the Eagles on Saturday.
The fact that Phillips wouldn’t be entitled to a buyout makes it more likely that Jones would walk away from the option on Phillips’ contract for 2010.
Brad Smith surprised the Bengals last week; don’t expect that to be the case this week.
The fact that offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is under contract for two more years at $3.5 million per season makes it more likely that, if Phillips goes, Garrett will get the job.
At one point, it appeared Jones would simply clean house. The Cowboys’ late-season push to the playoffs could save Garrett, especially if it’s the defense and not the offense that blows it for the Cowboys on Saturday.
3. Rex Ryan just can’t help himself
The Jets had the Bengals right where they wanted them. Regardless of whether the Bengals did or didn’t try to win on Sunday night, the AFC North champions undoubtedly were rattled by that 37-0 pounding. And so with the league’s best defense and a potent running game, the Jets seem to be poised to roll into Cincinnati and do to the Bengals what the Bengals so proudly did to the Ravens and Steelers this year — beat them twice.
But then Jets coach Rex Ryan decided to pop off, declaring that his team should be favored not only to win on the second Saturday in January but also on the first Sunday in February.
And with that declaration, Ryan gave Bengals coach Marvin Lewis all he needed to get his team to forget about the beating they took in Week 17 — and to administer one of their own in the wild-card round.
What better way to get past a moment that might have sapped the team’s confidence than by changing the focus to yet another comment from Ryan suggesting that he’s too big for his britches?
4. Carson Palmer needs to prove the doubters wrong
Given that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer missed most of the 2008 season with a bum elbow and given that he’s not having a great year, a lot of people think he’s still suffering from the injury, and that the Bengals are hiding it just like the Jets did last year down the stretch with Brett Favre’s bad arm.
If Palmer is fine, then he needs to demonstrate it — convincingly — on Saturday.
But the evidence suggests something is wrong. He has thrown for more than 300 yards only once this year, and he has produced fewer than 200 yards seven times.
Last week, he had none.
Regardless of whether it’s Palmer or the guys catching his passes, Palmer is the leader of the team, and it’s on him to try to propel the Bengals to their first postseason win in a generation.
Ravens QB Joe Flacco figures to see a lot of blitz pressure from the Patriots’ defense on Sunday.
5. Flacco could be the difference maker
The Ravens have been successful over the past decade with a great defense and an offense good enough to score points with the field position the defense gives it.
In his second NFL season, quarterback Joe Flacco has increased his level of play significantly, with more than 600 additional passing yards, the same number of interceptions (12) and seven more touchdown passes (21).
So if the Ravens want to contend for a championship, they’ll need to remove the training wheels. Last year, Flacco threw for 135, 161, and 141 yards in three postseason games. This time around, they need to get the ball into the air more often, especially if opposing defenses — like the Patriots on Sunday — plan to try to take away Willis McGahee and Ray Rice.
6. A little New York hypocrisy
After the Dolphins beat the Jets in October with a heavy dose of the Wildcat, New York linebacker Calvin Pace couldn’t hold his tongue.
"I’m going to be honest, I can’t respect that stuff," he said at the time. "All that Wildcat. Because we’re in the NFL, man. If you’re out there running that nonsense, it’s crap."
And, of course, the Jets have since taken to the Wildcat, using Brad Smith as a change-of-pace quarterback. Smith rushed for 92 yards on four carries in the playoff-clinching win over Cincinnati.
If not for all that "nonsense" and "crap," the Jets might be sitting at home this weekend.
7. Get a good look at Kurt Warner
When Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner signed a two-year contract in the offseason, it was assumed he’d play two more years.
But Warner gave serious thought to calling it quits a year ago, and there’s a good chance he’ll decide after the 2009 season ends to pack it in.
The farther the team progresses, the more likely he is to ride into the sunset. If they win the Super Bowl, he surely won’t return. The question is whether he’ll give it another try in 2010 if they fall short of the mark again.
Still, even if they lose Sunday — and there’s a good chance they will — Warner might decide that he has done enough to get to Canton, and in turn decide he needs to get out before he takes any more concussions like the one that caused him to miss the game at Tennessee in late November.
8. Vikings are surely rooting for the Cowboys again
In Week 17, the Minnesota Vikings clobbered the Giants. The Vikes then needed help from the Cowboys to nail down a bye.
So with the Cowboys beating the Eagles and securing the third seed, a win by the Cowboys will send Dallas to Minnesota for the divisional round.
A victory by Philly would result in the sixth seed heading to New Orleans, with the winner of the Packers-Cardinals game going to Minnesota.
And if the Packers win, they’ll get another crack at Brett Favre — with a much better team than when the two teams got together in early October and early November.
So the Vikings surely are hoping for the Cowboys to knock off the Eagles again, even if it means a rematch of the 1975 division-round game featuring a Hail Mary pass and a flying whiskey bottle.
9. Packers quietly have gotten their act together
After losing to the Vikings and Favre at home on Nov. 1, the Packers stumbled badly against the Buccaneers. Since then, however, Mike McCarthy’s team has won all but one of its games.
The winning streak would be eight but for that last-second wing-and-a-rosary from Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to receiver Mike Wallace.
Along the way, the defense has improved (but for the 37 points given up to the Steelers) and the offensive line has done a better job of keeping quarterback Aaron Rodgers in one piece.
So it’s not unrealistic for Green Bay fans to be dreaming of another Super Bowl win, even with the quarterback who took them to their last one playing for an arch rival.
10. After this weekend, weather likely won’t be a factor
Though the Ravens and Jets are both built to win in the elements, the only games involving elements for the entire postseason might be the games featuring the Ravens and Jets this weekend.
Three of the teams that earned byes play in domes, and the other plays in San Diego.
So unless there are multiple division-round upsets this year, there might not be much cold or wind or snow this time around.
Which means that teams with high-powered passing offenses will have an edge.
Until they get to Miami and it rains the entire game, like it did three years ago.
Mike Florio writes and edits ProFootballTalk.com and is a regular contributor to Sporting News. Check out PFT for up-to-the minute NFL news.
Sporting News staff reports
New York Mets third baseman David Wright expects to return to form in 2010 after a disappointing 2009 season during which his home run total dropped from 33 to 10.
Wright told the New York Post that several things contributed to his subpar production last season and that he "felt very uncomfortable" in the batter’s box.
Wright didn’t blame the injury-related absences of first baseman Carlos Delgado, shortstop Jose Reyes and center fielder Carlos Beltran for his offensive woes, but he acknowledged the dimensions of new Citi Field might have contributed. He noted that many of his homers normally go to the opposite field, but that is tough to do in Citi Field.
"You’ve got to really get into one to (homer) opposite field," Wright told the newspaper. "That’s not a knock on Citi Field. You have to adapt to the park that you’re playing in."
Wright dismissed any speculation about his power drop-off being related to steroid use.
"Since I came into the league, we’ve had drug tests," Wright told the New York Post. "Major League Baseball, the Players Association, we’ve got great drug testing going on. And I think that speaks for itself. I’ve never put anything illegal into my body. I take a lot of pride in that. There’s a lot of things that I can point my finger at and say there’s some reasoning behind the drop off in home runs and 100 percent that’s not one of them."
Sporting News staff reports
New York Mets third baseman David Wright expects to return to form in 2010 after a disappointing 2009 season during which his home run total dropped from 33 to 10.
Wright told the New York Post that several things contributed to his subpar production last season and that he "felt very uncomfortable" in the batter’s box.
Wright didn’t blame the injury-related absences of first baseman Carlos Delgado, shortstop Jose Reyes and center fielder Carlos Beltran for his offensive woes, but he acknowledged the dimensions of new Citi Field might have contributed. He noted that many of his homers normally go to the opposite field, but that is tough to do in Citi Field.
"You’ve got to really get into one to (homer) opposite field," Wright told the newspaper. "That’s not a knock on Citi Field. You have to adapt to the park that you’re playing in."
Wright dismissed any speculation about his power drop-off being related to steroid use.
"Since I came into the league, we’ve had drug tests," Wright told the New York Post. "Major League Baseball, the Players Association, we’ve got great drug testing going on. And I think that speaks for itself. I’ve never put anything illegal into my body. I take a lot of pride in that. There’s a lot of things that I can point my finger at and say there’s some reasoning behind the drop off in home runs and 100 percent that’s not one of them."
IRVING, Texas — The Eagles have one more chance to solve the Cowboys’ riddle on Saturday night, or their season, which began with Super Bowl expectations, will end well short.
Expect more involvement from rookie LeSean McCoy.
Considering the Eagles were shut out, 24-0, at Cowboys Stadium last week, they must do plenty of things better to have a chance to win Saturday night. Many of them are simple, fundamental football tasks, but none will come easy against the fast and physical Cowboys.
1. Stop the run. The fact Dallas running backs Marion Barber and Felix Jones were both effective last week in the power rushing attack (91 yards each) threw off Philadelphia’s defensive plans.
"By them running the ball well, it basically killed us," Eagles safety Quintin Mikell said.
The Cowboys passed effectively off the success of the run and kept the aggressive Eagles off-balance, leading to big holes for Barber and Jones. On Saturday night, Philadelphia will work on getting defenders in better position to fill those lanes before Barber or Jones can run into the secondary.
"We need to get a lot more guys around the ball," Mikell said. "We have to tackle better and we have to get off of blocks better."
To that end, don’t be surprised to see some lineup changes, such as giving more reps to veteran run-stopping middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter on early downs.
2. Get out to a fast start. The Eagles didn’t quite get started Sunday. Looking at their talent and typical offensive prowess, getting a quick score this week would give the team confidence and much-needed momentum.
"Everybody says start fast, finish strong," Eagles running back Brian Westbrook said. "But there are going to be ebbs and flows to every game. Even if you start fast, you have to try to continue that throughout the whole game."
For all their big-play ability, the Eagles are at their best when Donovan McNabb gets into an early rhythm to where he’s consistently connecting with all receivers, methodically moving the ball downfield. When the base offense is working well, it opens up more opportunities to hit big plays.
3. Run the ball more. Most teams tend to abandon the run when staring at a 17-0 halftime deficit, and pass-first Andy Reid tends to fade it out in some games no matter the score.
The game’s outcome shouldn’t completely rest on McNabb’s arm, and the running game doesn’t have to be all about Westbrook, either. Expect speedy rookie backup LeSean McCoy and Pro Bowl fullback Leonard Weaver — both performed well when Westbrook was sidelined by concussions — to be more involved.
Offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg said the Eagles wanted to run more last week, but the early deficit limited their options.
"We had a plan last week, and we tried to get back into the game," Mornhinweg said. "So we didn’t really get to that plan for the three backs that we have that carry the football."
There’s also the added dimension of Michael Vick, who didn’t play last week but is healthy enough to contribute Saturday night. Even if the Cowboys are prepared for the "Wildcat" offense, a fresh and versatile Vick still poses a challenge.
4. Get a spark from special teams. From kickoff specialist David Buehler’s touchback boots to solid punt coverage that gave the Eagles’ DeSean Jackson little room to operate on his returns, the Cowboys easily won the battle for field position last week.
A big return would allow the Eagles’ offense to operate with a short field, which could make the difference in what figures to be a much closer game.
Vinnie Iyer is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at viyer@sportingnews.com.
IRVING, Texas — The Eagles have one more chance to solve the Cowboys’ riddle on Saturday night, or their season, which began with Super Bowl expectations, will end well short.
Expect more involvement from rookie LeSean McCoy.
Considering the Eagles were shut out, 24-0, at Cowboys Stadium last week, they must do plenty of things better to have a chance to win Saturday night. Many of them are simple, fundamental football tasks, but none will come easy against the fast and physical Cowboys.
1. Stop the run. The fact Dallas running backs Marion Barber and Felix Jones were both effective last week in the power rushing attack (91 yards each) threw off Philadelphia’s defensive plans.
"By them running the ball well, it basically killed us," Eagles safety Quintin Mikell said.
The Cowboys passed effectively off the success of the run and kept the aggressive Eagles off-balance, leading to big holes for Barber and Jones. On Saturday night, Philadelphia will work on getting defenders in better position to fill those lanes before Barber or Jones can run into the secondary.
"We need to get a lot more guys around the ball," Mikell said. "We have to tackle better and we have to get off of blocks better."
To that end, don’t be surprised to see some lineup changes, such as giving more reps to veteran run-stopping middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter on early downs.
2. Get out to a fast start. The Eagles didn’t quite get started Sunday. Looking at their talent and typical offensive prowess, getting a quick score this week would give the team confidence and much-needed momentum.
"Everybody says start fast, finish strong," Eagles running back Brian Westbrook said. "But there are going to be ebbs and flows to every game. Even if you start fast, you have to try to continue that throughout the whole game."
For all their big-play ability, the Eagles are at their best when Donovan McNabb gets into an early rhythm to where he’s consistently connecting with all receivers, methodically moving the ball downfield. When the base offense is working well, it opens up more opportunities to hit big plays.
3. Run the ball more. Most teams tend to abandon the run when staring at a 17-0 halftime deficit, and pass-first Andy Reid tends to fade it out in some games no matter the score.
The game’s outcome shouldn’t completely rest on McNabb’s arm, and the running game doesn’t have to be all about Westbrook, either. Expect speedy rookie backup LeSean McCoy and Pro Bowl fullback Leonard Weaver — both performed well when Westbrook was sidelined by concussions — to be more involved.
Offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg said the Eagles wanted to run more last week, but the early deficit limited their options.
"We had a plan last week, and we tried to get back into the game," Mornhinweg said. "So we didn’t really get to that plan for the three backs that we have that carry the football."
There’s also the added dimension of Michael Vick, who didn’t play last week but is healthy enough to contribute Saturday night. Even if the Cowboys are prepared for the "Wildcat" offense, a fresh and versatile Vick still poses a challenge.
4. Get a spark from special teams. From kickoff specialist David Buehler’s touchback boots to solid punt coverage that gave the Eagles’ DeSean Jackson little room to operate on his returns, the Cowboys easily won the battle for field position last week.
A big return would allow the Eagles’ offense to operate with a short field, which could make the difference in what figures to be a much closer game.
Vinnie Iyer is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at viyer@sportingnews.com.
Aaron Rodgers and Mark Sanchez are preparing for their first playoff games, and Carson Palmer and Tony Romo are seeking their first playoff victory.
Quarterbacks make their legacy in the postseason, and the four seeking their first playoff win this weekend are well aware.
"The quarterback is going to be judged, fair or unfair, by success in the playoffs," Rodgers told reporters this week. "You remember the Terry Bradshaws, the Joe Montanas, Tom Brady, who have won three or four Super Bowls. That’s not my main focus, but at some point you’d love to be mentioned in the same breath as guys like that who have won multiple Super Bowls."
Bengals’ Carson Palmer looks for first playoff win on Saturday against the Jets.
What will it take for these four quarterbacks to taste playoff success?
Carson Palmer, Bengals
Playoff record: 0-1.
Saturday’s opponent: Jets.
Why he might prevail: One of the game’s best pure passers, Palmer has proven his worth in the clutch. Four times this season, Palmer has engineered game-winning drives either in the fourth quarter or in overtime. If Saturday’s game against the Jets is close down the stretch, Palmer’s coolness and experience gives him an edge over the rookie Sanchez.
Why he might fail: This has been one of Palmer’s worst statistical seasons, ranking 16th among NFL quarterbacks in passer rating (83.6). The Bengals have become a run-first team and do not have a quick-strike offense. The late Chris Henry –- who was on IR when he died — was Palmer’s best deep threat, and without him, their offense has had trouble stretching the field.
Meanwhile, Palmer’s favorite target, Chad Ochocinco, will be shadowed by perhaps the NFL’s best cornerback, Darrelle Revis. If Revis locks up Ochocinco, and Rex Ryan’s blitzing schemes get to Palmer, it could be a long day for the Bengals.
"You’ve got to be able to throw the football to win now," Palmer said. "We just need to keep working on it. We need to catch heat a little bit and get rolling here soon."
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Playoff record: 0-0.
Sunday’s opponent: Cardinals.
Why he might prevail: Rodgers’ accuracy and arm strength allow him to throw into tight coverage without making mistakes. Rodgers attempted 541 passes this season yet threw just seven interceptions, the league’s best pass/interception ratio. And despite his youth, nothing seems to rattle Rodgers.
"I’m just impressed with the way he handles everything. The whole saga with Brett, consistently being the same guy, very even-keeled," Cardinals QB Kurt Warner said. "On top of that, he’s as physically gifted as anybody I’ve seen.
"He can throw the ball — it’s almost effortless. He moves well; he makes good decisions; he can throw on the run. When we were talking, I asked if I could just have a little bit of that arm. I don’t know what that feels like — to be able to throw it like he can."
Why he might fail: Rodgers was sacked 50 times this season, tied with Ben Roethlisberger for most in the league. The Packers did a better job protecting Rodgers late in the season, and he did a better job getting rid of the ball.
However, expect the Cardinals to test the Packers’ offensive line with blitzes and line stunts the Cardinals did not unveil in last weekend’s matchup. As good as Rodgers is, the Packers’ passing game will suffer if he is being sacked or hurried consistently.
Tony Romo, Cowboys
Playoff record: 0-2.
Saturday’s opponent: Eagles.
Why he might prevail: Romo is 2-0 vs. the Eagles this season, including last weekend, when he carved up Philadelphia (24-for-34 passing, 311 yards, two touchdowns). Unnerving Romo with blitz packages is harder for the Eagles than it used to be.
"He’s one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, the way he’s played this year on a consistent basis," Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott said. "We’ve seen it over the years from Romo, where he’s been up and down. But this year, I think the consistency and probably the maturation process that he’s gone through has shown."
Why he might fail: The Eagles have won seven consecutive playoff openers. If they avoid falling behind early, more and more pressure will shift to the Cowboys. Until Romo and coach Wade Phillips (0-4 career playoff record) win in postseason, they will carry the psychological burden that comes with past failures.
"You really have to put it out of your head," said Tony Dungy, former Colts coach and current NBC analyst. "That’s easier said than done because you’re going to hear it."
Mark Sanchez, Jets
Playoff record: 0-0.
Saturday’s opponent: Bengals.
Why he might prevail: With the NFL’s top running game and NFL’s top defense, the Jets have a formula for success. They will play to their strengths, try to keep Sanchez’s throws to a minimum and ask him to avoid turnovers. The Jets are 5-0 in games that Sanchez has thrown fewer than 20 passes.
"We just need him to be efficient, play the position, and I think he knows that," Ryan said.
Why he might fail: If the Bengals choke off the Jets’ running game or if the Jets fall behind, Sanchez might be forced to throw more than Jets coaches would prefer. That could spell huge trouble for the Jets, who are 0-5 when Sanchez has thrown two or more interceptions. Sanchez also must handle the nerves that come with being a rookie quarterback in the playoffs.
"There will be a point maybe before the game, midway through the game, halftime, where I (will say), ‘This is unbelievable,’" Sanchez said.
Clifton Brown is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at cliftonbrown@sportingnews.com.
Aaron Rodgers and Mark Sanchez are preparing for their first playoff games, and Carson Palmer and Tony Romo are seeking their first playoff victory.
Quarterbacks make their legacy in the postseason, and the four seeking their first playoff win this weekend are well aware.
"The quarterback is going to be judged, fair or unfair, by success in the playoffs," Rodgers told reporters this week. "You remember the Terry Bradshaws, the Joe Montanas, Tom Brady, who have won three or four Super Bowls. That’s not my main focus, but at some point you’d love to be mentioned in the same breath as guys like that who have won multiple Super Bowls."
Bengals’ Carson Palmer looks for first playoff win on Saturday against the Jets.
What will it take for these four quarterbacks to taste playoff success?
Carson Palmer, Bengals
Playoff record: 0-1.
Saturday’s opponent: Jets.
Why he might prevail: One of the game’s best pure passers, Palmer has proven his worth in the clutch. Four times this season, Palmer has engineered game-winning drives either in the fourth quarter or in overtime. If Saturday’s game against the Jets is close down the stretch, Palmer’s coolness and experience gives him an edge over the rookie Sanchez.
Why he might fail: This has been one of Palmer’s worst statistical seasons, ranking 16th among NFL quarterbacks in passer rating (83.6). The Bengals have become a run-first team and do not have a quick-strike offense. The late Chris Henry –- who was on IR when he died — was Palmer’s best deep threat, and without him, their offense has had trouble stretching the field.
Meanwhile, Palmer’s favorite target, Chad Ochocinco, will be shadowed by perhaps the NFL’s best cornerback, Darrelle Revis. If Revis locks up Ochocinco, and Rex Ryan’s blitzing schemes get to Palmer, it could be a long day for the Bengals.
"You’ve got to be able to throw the football to win now," Palmer said. "We just need to keep working on it. We need to catch heat a little bit and get rolling here soon."
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Playoff record: 0-0.
Sunday’s opponent: Cardinals.
Why he might prevail: Rodgers’ accuracy and arm strength allow him to throw into tight coverage without making mistakes. Rodgers attempted 541 passes this season yet threw just seven interceptions, the league’s best pass/interception ratio. And despite his youth, nothing seems to rattle Rodgers.
"I’m just impressed with the way he handles everything. The whole saga with Brett, consistently being the same guy, very even-keeled," Cardinals QB Kurt Warner said. "On top of that, he’s as physically gifted as anybody I’ve seen.
"He can throw the ball — it’s almost effortless. He moves well; he makes good decisions; he can throw on the run. When we were talking, I asked if I could just have a little bit of that arm. I don’t know what that feels like — to be able to throw it like he can."
Why he might fail: Rodgers was sacked 50 times this season, tied with Ben Roethlisberger for most in the league. The Packers did a better job protecting Rodgers late in the season, and he did a better job getting rid of the ball.
However, expect the Cardinals to test the Packers’ offensive line with blitzes and line stunts the Cardinals did not unveil in last weekend’s matchup. As good as Rodgers is, the Packers’ passing game will suffer if he is being sacked or hurried consistently.
Tony Romo, Cowboys
Playoff record: 0-2.
Saturday’s opponent: Eagles.
Why he might prevail: Romo is 2-0 vs. the Eagles this season, including last weekend, when he carved up Philadelphia (24-for-34 passing, 311 yards, two touchdowns). Unnerving Romo with blitz packages is harder for the Eagles than it used to be.
"He’s one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, the way he’s played this year on a consistent basis," Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott said. "We’ve seen it over the years from Romo, where he’s been up and down. But this year, I think the consistency and probably the maturation process that he’s gone through has shown."
Why he might fail: The Eagles have won seven consecutive playoff openers. If they avoid falling behind early, more and more pressure will shift to the Cowboys. Until Romo and coach Wade Phillips (0-4 career playoff record) win in postseason, they will carry the psychological burden that comes with past failures.
"You really have to put it out of your head," said Tony Dungy, former Colts coach and current NBC analyst. "That’s easier said than done because you’re going to hear it."
Mark Sanchez, Jets
Playoff record: 0-0.
Saturday’s opponent: Bengals.
Why he might prevail: With the NFL’s top running game and NFL’s top defense, the Jets have a formula for success. They will play to their strengths, try to keep Sanchez’s throws to a minimum and ask him to avoid turnovers. The Jets are 5-0 in games that Sanchez has thrown fewer than 20 passes.
"We just need him to be efficient, play the position, and I think he knows that," Ryan said.
Why he might fail: If the Bengals choke off the Jets’ running game or if the Jets fall behind, Sanchez might be forced to throw more than Jets coaches would prefer. That could spell huge trouble for the Jets, who are 0-5 when Sanchez has thrown two or more interceptions. Sanchez also must handle the nerves that come with being a rookie quarterback in the playoffs.
"There will be a point maybe before the game, midway through the game, halftime, where I (will say), ‘This is unbelievable,’" Sanchez said.
Clifton Brown is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at cliftonbrown@sportingnews.com.
Dawson says people only see the glamorous side of baseball and he had a very painful career.
NEW YORK — The day after being elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in his ninth year of eligibility, Andre Dawson would have preferred not to talk about the 12 knee surgeries and the physical pain he endured during his 21-season career.
But when asked to elaborate at a news conference at the Waldorf-Astoria in New York, he reluctantly painted the grim picture.
"A lot of people only see the glamour side of the game, but I had a very painful career," said Dawson, an eight-time All-Star outfielder who was selected on 420 of 539 ballots cast in voting announced by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Wednesday. "I had to take medication almost daily to get through those three hours (on the field)."
Dawson said he injured his left knee playing high school football, and it left him with limited range of motion in his left leg. Eleven seasons of playing on artificial turf with the Expos only exacerbated the problem, as both knees wore down and required repeated surgery and rehabilitation.
Because of his knees, Dawson said, "I was usually the first one at the ballpark and the last one to leave. Before the game, I’d go through an ice treatment, some stretching, get both knees taped. After the game, it would be the same scenario."
Those knees prompted Dawson to become a free agent in 1987 and try to find a team that played on natural grass. He said his decision to sign with the Cubs gave him a new lease on life.
"Going to Wrigley Field, playing in the friendly confines amongst the Cub fans, that was amazing," said Dawson, who had his best season that year, winning the NL MVP Award — the first member of a last-place team to do so. "That really rejuvenated my career at a time when I was unsure about myself and whether I was going to be in the game. I owe that organization a lot for believing in me."
Dawson, who said he hasn’t decided whether his Hall of Fame bust will feature an Expos or Cubs cap, hit 438 homers in a career that spanned from 1976-96. Named the N.L. Rookie of the Year in 1977 with Montreal, Dawson stayed with the Cubs through 1992, then spent two seasons apiece with Boston and Florida. He had a .279 career average with 1,591 RBIs and 314 steals. He is one of only three players with at least 400 home runs and 300 stolen bases, joining Barry Bonds and Willie Mays.
But Dawson said he is most proud of his eight Gold Gloves. "I tried not let one phase of the game overshadow the other," he said. "But I think I am more enthusiastic about the Gold Gloves because that says that defensively you were one of the standouts."
Dawson will join former manager Whitey Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey, Veterans Committee selections, in this year’s Hall of Fame class. The trio will be enshrined during a ceremony in Cooperstown, N.Y, on July 25.
Dawson says people only see the glamorous side of baseball and he had a very painful career.
NEW YORK — The day after being elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in his ninth year of eligibility, Andre Dawson would have preferred not to talk about the 12 knee surgeries and the physical pain he endured during his 21-season career.
But when asked to elaborate at a news conference at the Waldorf-Astoria in New York, he reluctantly painted the grim picture.
"A lot of people only see the glamour side of the game, but I had a very painful career," said Dawson, an eight-time All-Star outfielder who was selected on 420 of 539 ballots cast in voting announced by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Wednesday. "I had to take medication almost daily to get through those three hours (on the field)."
Dawson said he injured his left knee playing high school football, and it left him with limited range of motion in his left leg. Eleven seasons of playing on artificial turf with the Expos only exacerbated the problem, as both knees wore down and required repeated surgery and rehabilitation.
Because of his knees, Dawson said, "I was usually the first one at the ballpark and the last one to leave. Before the game, I’d go through an ice treatment, some stretching, get both knees taped. After the game, it would be the same scenario."
Those knees prompted Dawson to become a free agent in 1987 and try to find a team that played on natural grass. He said his decision to sign with the Cubs gave him a new lease on life.
"Going to Wrigley Field, playing in the friendly confines amongst the Cub fans, that was amazing," said Dawson, who had his best season that year, winning the NL MVP Award — the first member of a last-place team to do so. "That really rejuvenated my career at a time when I was unsure about myself and whether I was going to be in the game. I owe that organization a lot for believing in me."
Dawson, who said he hasn’t decided whether his Hall of Fame bust will feature an Expos or Cubs cap, hit 438 homers in a career that spanned from 1976-96. Named the N.L. Rookie of the Year in 1977 with Montreal, Dawson stayed with the Cubs through 1992, then spent two seasons apiece with Boston and Florida. He had a .279 career average with 1,591 RBIs and 314 steals. He is one of only three players with at least 400 home runs and 300 stolen bases, joining Barry Bonds and Willie Mays.
But Dawson said he is most proud of his eight Gold Gloves. "I tried not let one phase of the game overshadow the other," he said. "But I think I am more enthusiastic about the Gold Gloves because that says that defensively you were one of the standouts."
Dawson will join former manager Whitey Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey, Veterans Committee selections, in this year’s Hall of Fame class. The trio will be enshrined during a ceremony in Cooperstown, N.Y, on July 25.
We might never again see a worst-to-first story comparable to the 2008 Rays (from 96 losses in 2007 to the World Series in ’08), but that doesn’t mean a last-place team can’t grab some headlines for impressive year-to-year improvement. This past season, for example, the Mariners rebounded from a 101-loss disaster to finish eight games above .500. But which last-place team from ’09 will be the most-improved in 2010?
Chris Bahr explains why the Diamondbacks should make sizeable gains in the win-loss column, but Stan McNeal says the Nationals will show even more improvement:
Saying the Nationals will be baseball’s most improved last-place team is kind of like telling your mom that she looks pretty nice … for someone her age.
But, hey, a backhanded compliment is better than no compliment. And the Nationals are due some sort of compliment after putting themselves in position to end their streak of 100-loss seasons at two. Don’t expect them to threaten the Phillies or even escape last place, but they should be able to pull off a 10- to 12-game swing in the standings.
Washington’s seven-game winning streak to close out the 2009 season has nothing to do with this thinking. It’s more about what the Nationals have done since June.
They drafted — and signed — Stephen Strasburg. No matter how well the phenom pitches in spring training, he is unlikely to begin the season in the majors. But look for him by summer.
"I had this kind of situation with Kerry Wood in ’98 where he was the most dominant pitcher in the Cactus League and we sent him out," manager Jim Riggleman says. "It was tempting to keep him from Day 1. Now I don’t know if that would have been a bad decision, but he started in the minors and joined us pretty quickly. I hope the same thing happens with Stephen." If it does, Strasburg will have plenty of time to make an impact as a rookie.
Adam Dunn will be better at first than in the outfield.
They moved Adam Dunn where he should be. As much as Dunn fancies himself a left fielder, he isn’t. He is a decent first baseman, though, as he showed once he knew the position was going to be a full-time gig. Josh Willingham hardly is a Gold Glover in left, but Washington’s defense — an MLB-worst 143 errors — is improved with him in the field and Dunn at first.
They have helped themselves this offseason. Signing righthander Jason Marquis "was exactly what we needed," Riggleman says. That is, he is a veteran innings-eater "who gives us a chance to match up against the other club’s higher-end starters."
The bullpen has been bolstered with the additions of Matt Capps, Brian Bruney and Eddie Guardado. "We’ve added three guys who all have pitched late in ballgames," Riggleman says. Pencil Capps in as the closer but have your eraser ready. "I don’t care who gets the save as long as he’s a National," Riggleman says.
Pudge Rodriguez turned 38 in November and hit only .249 last season, but the Nationals were happy to sign him — even if it meant giving him a two-year deal. "He is in great shape and still a good player," Riggleman says. "He’s still hitting line drives. Pudge hit the ball much better last year than his average indicated. By the law of averages, some of those line drives will find holes this year."
If he doesn’t, Elijah Dukes showed enough last year that he might be ready to handle such responsibility. "He drove in 58 runs about 350 at-bats (actually 364), which computes close to an 100-RBI season," Riggleman says. "He’s still a young guy and coming along. He’s coming to that point where it’s time for him to take the next step and become a solid regular player in the big leagues."
That, too, could be interpreted as a backhanded compliment. Guess that’s all the Nationals are warranted. For now, anyway.
Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.
We might never again see a worst-to-first story comparable to the 2008 Rays (from 96 losses in 2007 to the World Series in ’08), but that doesn’t mean a last-place team can’t grab some headlines for impressive year-to-year improvement. This past season, for example, the Mariners rebounded from a 101-loss disaster to finish eight games above .500. But which last-place team from ’09 will be the most-improved in 2010?
Chris Bahr explains why the Diamondbacks should make sizeable gains in the win-loss column, but Stan McNeal says the Nationals will show even more improvement:
Saying the Nationals will be baseball’s most improved last-place team is kind of like telling your mom that she looks pretty nice … for someone her age.
But, hey, a backhanded compliment is better than no compliment. And the Nationals are due some sort of compliment after putting themselves in position to end their streak of 100-loss seasons at two. Don’t expect them to threaten the Phillies or even escape last place, but they should be able to pull off a 10- to 12-game swing in the standings.
Washington’s seven-game winning streak to close out the 2009 season has nothing to do with this thinking. It’s more about what the Nationals have done since June.
They drafted — and signed — Stephen Strasburg. No matter how well the phenom pitches in spring training, he is unlikely to begin the season in the majors. But look for him by summer.
"I had this kind of situation with Kerry Wood in ’98 where he was the most dominant pitcher in the Cactus League and we sent him out," manager Jim Riggleman says. "It was tempting to keep him from Day 1. Now I don’t know if that would have been a bad decision, but he started in the minors and joined us pretty quickly. I hope the same thing happens with Stephen." If it does, Strasburg will have plenty of time to make an impact as a rookie.
Adam Dunn will be better at first than in the outfield.
They moved Adam Dunn where he should be. As much as Dunn fancies himself a left fielder, he isn’t. He is a decent first baseman, though, as he showed once he knew the position was going to be a full-time gig. Josh Willingham hardly is a Gold Glover in left, but Washington’s defense — an MLB-worst 143 errors — is improved with him in the field and Dunn at first.
They have helped themselves this offseason. Signing righthander Jason Marquis "was exactly what we needed," Riggleman says. That is, he is a veteran innings-eater "who gives us a chance to match up against the other club’s higher-end starters."
The bullpen has been bolstered with the additions of Matt Capps, Brian Bruney and Eddie Guardado. "We’ve added three guys who all have pitched late in ballgames," Riggleman says. Pencil Capps in as the closer but have your eraser ready. "I don’t care who gets the save as long as he’s a National," Riggleman says.
Pudge Rodriguez turned 38 in November and hit only .249 last season, but the Nationals were happy to sign him — even if it meant giving him a two-year deal. "He is in great shape and still a good player," Riggleman says. "He’s still hitting line drives. Pudge hit the ball much better last year than his average indicated. By the law of averages, some of those line drives will find holes this year."
If he doesn’t, Elijah Dukes showed enough last year that he might be ready to handle such responsibility. "He drove in 58 runs about 350 at-bats (actually 364), which computes close to an 100-RBI season," Riggleman says. "He’s still a young guy and coming along. He’s coming to that point where it’s time for him to take the next step and become a solid regular player in the big leagues."
That, too, could be interpreted as a backhanded compliment. Guess that’s all the Nationals are warranted. For now, anyway.
Stan McNeal is a writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at smcneal@sportingnews.com.
We might never again see a worst-to-first story comparable to the 2008 Rays (from 96 losses in 2007 to the World Series in ’08), but that doesn’t mean a last-place team can’t grab some headlines for impressive year-to-year improvement. This past season, for example, the Mariners rebounded from a 101-loss disaster to finish eight games above .500. But which last-place team from ’09 will be the most-improved in 2010?
Stan McNeal says the Nationals will be noticeably better, but Chris Bahr says the real turnaround will come from the Diamondbacks:
Heading into the 2009 season, the Diamondbacks were pegged — at least by Sporting News — as the second-place team in the N.L. West. Sure, there were costly offseason losses, including Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, but the division was expected to be weak. And Arizona still had the dynamic 1-2 rotation punch of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren.
After four innings on opening day, however, Arizona’s season was all but over. In that start, Webb experienced shoulder discomfort, made an early exit and never threw another pitch all season. The Diamondbacks won the opener, but that marked the only time all season they were above .500. The end result: a 70-92 record — only five fewer losses than the team’s inaugural season in 1998.
But there is potential for a much different result in 2010. Three reasons why:
A healthy shoulder should mean an improved Brandon Webb.
Webb will be back. The 2006 N.L. Cy Young Award winner and 22-game winner in 2008 eventually had shoulder surgery, but he will be 100 percent in spring training. Because the procedure on his shoulder was of the cleanup variety, there is far less concern about his health than if he had required labrum or rotator cuff repairs. Even if Webb doesn’t completely return to dominant form, he will be a big upgrade and should be capable of at least 14-17 wins.
Promising young talent. Not all of the Diamondbacks’ much-hyped youngsters have panned out. Center fielder Chris Young, for example, regressed horribly in 2009, and left fielder Conor Jackson experienced a lost season because of illness. Young should be better this season, and Jackson should be healthy. Meanwhile, right fielder Justin Upton blossomed into a star last season, and third baseman Mark Reynolds was one of only five major leaguers to hit at least 40 homers. Given a chance to start, catcher Miguel Montero hit .316-11-40 after the All-Star break. Stephen Drew slipped a bit but remains an above-average shortstop with plenty of upside.
New additions. They didn’t add Matt Holliday or John Lackey, but the Diamondbacks could be better at second base with Kelly Johnson and in the rotation with Edwin Jackson. Johnson’s slump cost him his starting job in Atlanta last season, but that came on the heels of two consecutive solid seasons (.375 OBP in 2007, 39 doubles in 2008). Jackson has won 27 games the past two seasons but has been far better in the first half (3.19 ERA) than the second (5.11 ERA).
Arizona still has holes at first base, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation, and a worst-to-first jump is highly unlikely. But a .500 finish — or a bit better — is realistic.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
We might never again see a worst-to-first story comparable to the 2008 Rays (from 96 losses in 2007 to the World Series in ’08), but that doesn’t mean a last-place team can’t grab some headlines for impressive year-to-year improvement. This past season, for example, the Mariners rebounded from a 101-loss disaster to finish eight games above .500. But which last-place team from ’09 will be the most-improved in 2010?
Stan McNeal says the Nationals will be noticeably better, but Chris Bahr says the real turnaround will come from the Diamondbacks:
Heading into the 2009 season, the Diamondbacks were pegged — at least by Sporting News — as the second-place team in the N.L. West. Sure, there were costly offseason losses, including Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, but the division was expected to be weak. And Arizona still had the dynamic 1-2 rotation punch of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren.
After four innings on opening day, however, Arizona’s season was all but over. In that start, Webb experienced shoulder discomfort, made an early exit and never threw another pitch all season. The Diamondbacks won the opener, but that marked the only time all season they were above .500. The end result: a 70-92 record — only five fewer losses than the team’s inaugural season in 1998.
But there is potential for a much different result in 2010. Three reasons why:
A healthy shoulder should mean an improved Brandon Webb.
Webb will be back. The 2006 N.L. Cy Young Award winner and 22-game winner in 2008 eventually had shoulder surgery, but he will be 100 percent in spring training. Because the procedure on his shoulder was of the cleanup variety, there is far less concern about his health than if he had required labrum or rotator cuff repairs. Even if Webb doesn’t completely return to dominant form, he will be a big upgrade and should be capable of at least 14-17 wins.
Promising young talent. Not all of the Diamondbacks’ much-hyped youngsters have panned out. Center fielder Chris Young, for example, regressed horribly in 2009, and left fielder Conor Jackson experienced a lost season because of illness. Young should be better this season, and Jackson should be healthy. Meanwhile, right fielder Justin Upton blossomed into a star last season, and third baseman Mark Reynolds was one of only five major leaguers to hit at least 40 homers. Given a chance to start, catcher Miguel Montero hit .316-11-40 after the All-Star break. Stephen Drew slipped a bit but remains an above-average shortstop with plenty of upside.
New additions. They didn’t add Matt Holliday or John Lackey, but the Diamondbacks could be better at second base with Kelly Johnson and in the rotation with Edwin Jackson. Johnson’s slump cost him his starting job in Atlanta last season, but that came on the heels of two consecutive solid seasons (.375 OBP in 2007, 39 doubles in 2008). Jackson has won 27 games the past two seasons but has been far better in the first half (3.19 ERA) than the second (5.11 ERA).
Arizona still has holes at first base, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation, and a worst-to-first jump is highly unlikely. But a .500 finish — or a bit better — is realistic.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
Baltimore’s ground-and-pound strategy will be even stronger with an effective Willis McGahee.
