For the first time since 2004 and just the second time since 1999, the Rangers finished with a winning record last season. But despite being in first place as late as July 10, they still finished 10 games behind the first-place Angels. As is usually the case, pitching, namely the starters, will make or break this team’s chances. After a down year offensively and the loss of hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, Texas can’t rely on its bats to deliver 10-8 wins.
Josh Hamilton’s health will be a key question for the Rangers.
Three questions
1. Can Josh Hamilton stay healthy?
In his breakout season in 2008, Hamilton hit .304 with 32 homers and an AL-best 130 RBIs in 156 games. Plagued by back, rib and abdominal injuries last season, Hamilton was limited to 89 games and finished with a .268-10-54 stat line. Though not entirely because of Hamilton’s absence, the Rangers went from being the majors’ highest-scoring team in ’08 (901 runs) to the 10th highest-scoring team (784 runs) in ’09.
This spring, Hamilton missed a good chunk of time because of a shoulder injury. Shortly after returning from that injury Monday, he was hit on the left hand by a pitch. The move from center field to left field should mean less wear and tear, but there is an outfield wall to crash into in left field, too. With an unproven rotation, the Rangers need more production from their offense — something that won’t be possible if their best hitter spends more time on the disabled list than at the plate.
2. Will the rotation be good enough?
Team president Nolan Ryan followed through on his promise to toughen up his starters last season. In 2008, the Rangers’ rotation finished 29th in the majors with a 5.51 ERA and last with 869 1/3 innings pitched. Last season, they improved to 18th in ERA (4.61) and 17th in innings pitched. However, No. 1 starter and workhorse Kevin Millwood, who led the group with 198 2/3 innings pitched last season, was traded to Baltimore.
What’s left is a young and unproven bunch. Seventeen-game winner Scott Feldman broke through in ’09 but had only seven career wins before last season. Offseason acquisition Rich Harden is a veteran No. 2, but he hardly displays the durability Ryan desires. Derek Holland and Tommy Hunter, both 23, were rookies last season, and Colby Lewis pitched in Japan the past two seasons. Among the other candidates is C.J. Wilson, who is hoping to move from the bullpen to the rotation. "If I (struggle) as a starter, then I go right back to doing what I did," he said.
3. How much does Vladimir Guerrero have left?
After years of being abused by Vlad, the Rangers are relieved to have him on their side. In 50 career games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Guerrero has a .394 average, 14 homers and 33 RBIs. Against the Rangers, he hit .396 with 24 homers and 68 RBIs in 102 games. However, much of that production came before he began to break down physically. Because he should serve exclusively as a DH, Guerrero’s chances of staying healthy improve. In a strong lineup and hitter-friendly park, he should approach his numbers from 2008 (.303-27-91).
Projected lineup
1. CF Julio Borbon: 19 SBs, 30 runs, 20 RBIs in 46 games in ’09.
2. 3B Michael Young: .411 OBP at home last season; .337 on road.
3. LF Josh Hamilton: .239 AVG vs. righthanders in ’09; .327 vs. lefties.
4. DH Vladimir Guerrero: Failed to hit 25 HRs for first time since ’97.
5. 2B Ian Kinsler: Career-best 31 HRs last season; career-worst .253 AVG.
6. RF Nelson Cruz: 53 RBIs in first half; 23 after break.
7. 1B Chris Davis: 150 K’s, 24 BBs in 391 at-bats in ’09.
8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Shoulder concerns linger.
9. SS Elvis Andrus: .791 OPS at home as rookie; .620 on road.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Scott Feldman: 5-4, 4.71 ERA at home last season; 12-4, 3.56 on road.
2. RHP Rich Harden: Has reached 150 IP just once (’04).
3. RHP Colby Lewis: 6.83 ERA with Texas from 2002-04.
4. RHP Tommy Hunter: 2.95 ERA in first 12 starts; 6.28 ERA in final seven.
5. RHP Derek Holland: Allowed 26 HRs in 138 1/3 IP in ’09.
Projected closer
RHP Frank Francisco: 2.28 ERA in first half; 5.82 in second half.
Grades
Offense: B. Despite the drop-off in production last season and the loss to top RBI man Marlon Byrd to free agency this past offseason, the Rangers’ lineup has the potential to be among the majors’ best. Texas must improve its on-base percentage (24th last season) and cut down on its strikeouts (third most in 2009).
Pitching: C. The rotation is young and lacks a veteran No. 1, and much will depend on Harden’s durability. However, the bullpen should be strong and deep after the addition of lefthander Darren Oliver and with the continued emergence of Neftali Feliz.
Bench: C. The arrival of Pedro Borbon and the addition of Guerrero left David Murphy without a starting gig. Murphy, who hit a career-high 17 homers last season, can play all three outfield spots. Light-hitting Esteban German is the primary reserve infield, and Taylor Teagarden is 1A at catcher. But he hit just .217 in 2009.
Manager: C. The team’s 87 wins in 2009 were its most since 2004, and it was Ron Washington’s first winning season since taking over in 2007. Washington, who prides himself on fundamentals, must coax more improvement defensively. The Rangers improved to 25th in fielding percentage from 30th in 2008 and committed 26 fewer errors, after leading the majors with 132 miscues in ’08.
Sporting News prediction: In what should be a tight race in the AL West, the Rangers should come close to their 2009 win total — but still finish third.
Coming Thursday: Mariners preview
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
For the first time since 2004 and just the second time since 1999, the Rangers finished with a winning record last season. But despite being in first place as late as July 10, they still finished 10 games behind the first-place Angels. As is usually the case, pitching, namely the starters, will make or break this team’s chances. After a down year offensively and the loss of hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, Texas can’t rely on its bats to deliver 10-8 wins.
Josh Hamilton’s health will be a key question for the Rangers.
Three questions
1. Can Josh Hamilton stay healthy?
In his breakout season in 2008, Hamilton hit .304 with 32 homers and an AL-best 130 RBIs in 156 games. Plagued by back, rib and abdominal injuries last season, Hamilton was limited to 89 games and finished with a .268-10-54 stat line. Though not entirely because of Hamilton’s absence, the Rangers went from being the majors’ highest-scoring team in ’08 (901 runs) to the 10th highest-scoring team (784 runs) in ’09.
This spring, Hamilton missed a good chunk of time because of a shoulder injury. Shortly after returning from that injury Monday, he was hit on the left hand by a pitch. The move from center field to left field should mean less wear and tear, but there is an outfield wall to crash into in left field, too. With an unproven rotation, the Rangers need more production from their offense — something that won’t be possible if their best hitter spends more time on the disabled list than at the plate.
2. Will the rotation be good enough?
Team president Nolan Ryan followed through on his promise to toughen up his starters last season. In 2008, the Rangers’ rotation finished 29th in the majors with a 5.51 ERA and last with 869 1/3 innings pitched. Last season, they improved to 18th in ERA (4.61) and 17th in innings pitched. However, No. 1 starter and workhorse Kevin Millwood, who led the group with 198 2/3 innings pitched last season, was traded to Baltimore.
What’s left is a young and unproven bunch. Seventeen-game winner Scott Feldman broke through in ’09 but had only seven career wins before last season. Offseason acquisition Rich Harden is a veteran No. 2, but he hardly displays the durability Ryan desires. Derek Holland and Tommy Hunter, both 23, were rookies last season, and Colby Lewis pitched in Japan the past two seasons. Among the other candidates is C.J. Wilson, who is hoping to move from the bullpen to the rotation. "If I (struggle) as a starter, then I go right back to doing what I did," he said.
3. How much does Vladimir Guerrero have left?
After years of being abused by Vlad, the Rangers are relieved to have him on their side. In 50 career games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Guerrero has a .394 average, 14 homers and 33 RBIs. Against the Rangers, he hit .396 with 24 homers and 68 RBIs in 102 games. However, much of that production came before he began to break down physically. Because he should serve exclusively as a DH, Guerrero’s chances of staying healthy improve. In a strong lineup and hitter-friendly park, he should approach his numbers from 2008 (.303-27-91).
Projected lineup
1. CF Julio Borbon: 19 SBs, 30 runs, 20 RBIs in 46 games in ’09.
2. 3B Michael Young: .411 OBP at home last season; .337 on road.
3. LF Josh Hamilton: .239 AVG vs. righthanders in ’09; .327 vs. lefties.
4. DH Vladimir Guerrero: Failed to hit 25 HRs for first time since ’97.
5. 2B Ian Kinsler: Career-best 31 HRs last season; career-worst .253 AVG.
6. RF Nelson Cruz: 53 RBIs in first half; 23 after break.
7. 1B Chris Davis: 150 K’s, 24 BBs in 391 at-bats in ’09.
8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Shoulder concerns linger.
9. SS Elvis Andrus: .791 OPS at home as rookie; .620 on road.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Scott Feldman: 5-4, 4.71 ERA at home last season; 12-4, 3.56 on road.
2. RHP Rich Harden: Has reached 150 IP just once (’04).
3. RHP Colby Lewis: 6.83 ERA with Texas from 2002-04.
4. RHP Tommy Hunter: 2.95 ERA in first 12 starts; 6.28 ERA in final seven.
5. RHP Derek Holland: Allowed 26 HRs in 138 1/3 IP in ’09.
Projected closer
RHP Frank Francisco: 2.28 ERA in first half; 5.82 in second half.
Grades
Offense: B. Despite the drop-off in production last season and the loss to top RBI man Marlon Byrd to free agency this past offseason, the Rangers’ lineup has the potential to be among the majors’ best. Texas must improve its on-base percentage (24th last season) and cut down on its strikeouts (third most in 2009).
Pitching: C. The rotation is young and lacks a veteran No. 1, and much will depend on Harden’s durability. However, the bullpen should be strong and deep after the addition of lefthander Darren Oliver and with the continued emergence of Neftali Feliz.
Bench: C. The arrival of Pedro Borbon and the addition of Guerrero left David Murphy without a starting gig. Murphy, who hit a career-high 17 homers last season, can play all three outfield spots. Light-hitting Esteban German is the primary reserve infield, and Taylor Teagarden is 1A at catcher. But he hit just .217 in 2009.
Manager: C. The team’s 87 wins in 2009 were its most since 2004, and it was Ron Washington’s first winning season since taking over in 2007. Washington, who prides himself on fundamentals, must coax more improvement defensively. The Rangers improved to 25th in fielding percentage from 30th in 2008 and committed 26 fewer errors, after leading the majors with 132 miscues in ’08.
Sporting News prediction: In what should be a tight race in the AL West, the Rangers should come close to their 2009 win total — but still finish third.
Coming Thursday: Mariners preview
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
From 2005-08, the Astros’ .557 second-half winning percentage was tied for sixth-best in the majors. But instead of making a late-season run and vaulting into postseason contention last season, the Astros went 30-44 (.405) after the All-Star break — a slide that cost manager Cecil Cooper his job in late September. Enter Brad Mills, a managerial rookie who served as Red Sox bench coach the past six seasons. Mills inherits a 74-win squad that finished in fifth place in the NL Central.
Three quesions
Can Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman contribute like they have in the past?
1. Is Roy Oswalt still an ace?
For the first time in his career, Oswalt failed to achieve a double-digit win total in 2009. He finished 8-6 with a career-worst 4.12 ERA in 30 starts. It was the sixth consecutive season he made at least 30 starts, but the first time since 2003 that he failed to pitch at least 200 innings. Oswalt also battled back problems, leading to whispers that the 32-year-old is breaking down as a result of the wear and tear from his years of shouldering a heavy workload.
Because Wandy Rodriguez was the only other Astros starter with an ERA under 4.50 last season, the team needs Oswalt to return to pre-2009 form — or as close to it as possible. Newcomer Brett Myers is a question mark at No. 3, and the final two spots in the rotation are up for grabs, with Brian Moehler, Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino the top candidates.
2. Will this be Lance Berkman’s final season in Houston?
The last remaining Killer B is under contract through the 2011 season, but the Astros hold a $15 million option for next season. Berkman recently said he would be inclined to sign elsewhere if the Astros don’t exercise that option and allow him to become a free agent. His future could depend on whether he is able to bounce back from what statistically was the worst season of his career.
Limited to 136 games because of biceps and calf injuries, Berkman hit .274 with 25 homers and 80 RBIs in 2009. Not terrible numbers, but not up to par with his usual production. In 2006, Berkman hit .315 and established new career highs with 45 homers and 136 RBIs. At one point last season, Berkman had a 33-game homerless drought.
3. Will there be enough offense?
Houston finished 27th in the majors in runs scored and 25th in OPS last season, and it lost its second-best RBI man from last season when Miguel Tejada signed with the Orioles in the offseason. In addition to Berkman’s down season, Carlos Lee’s homer total dropped for a second consecutive year. As a result, leadoff man Michael Bourn failed to score 100 runs despite his career-best .354 on-base percentage and an NL-leading 61 steals.
Taking over for Tejada at shortstop will be defense-first Tommy Manzella, whose five career major league at-bats came late in 2009. "(Manzella has) done a great job through the minor leagues, and he’s been exceptional on the defensive end," Mills said.
Projected lineup
1. CF Michael Bourn: Must cut down on K’s (140 in ’09).
2. 2B Kaz Matsui: Just a .302 OBP last season.
3. 1B Lance Berkman: Switch hitter hit .231 vs. lefties.
4. LF Carlos Lee: .831 OPS was lowest since ’05.
5. RF Hunter Pence: .298 AVG, 11 HRs before break; .263 AVG, 14 HRs after.
6. 3B Pedro Feliz: .301 AVG, 18 RBIs in 25 career games at Minute Maid Park.
7. SS Tommy Manzella: 52 SBs, 19 triples in 5 minor league season.
8. C J.R. Towles: .188 AVG in 84 MLB games the past 3 seasons.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Roy Oswalt: 4.12 ERA at home and on road in ’09.
2. LHP Wandy Rodriguez: 9-3, 2.08 ERA at home; 5-9, 4.05 on road.
3. RHP Brett Myers: 6.43 ERA as RP after returning from hip surgery last season.
4. RHP Felipe Paulino: 4-12, 5.74 ERA in 20 career starts.
5. RHP Bud Norris: 3-0, 1.57 ERA in final 4 starts of ’09.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Brandon Lyon: 2.86 ERA in setup role with Tigers last season.
Grades
Offense: D. Despite playing in one of the majors’ most hitter-friendly parks, Houston was outscored by every NL team except the Pirates and Padres last season. And Houston finished 25th in homers. At least the Astros make contact; only the Mets finished with fewer strikeouts.
Pitching: D. Only six major league teams had a staff ERA worse than Houston’s 4.54 last season. The back end of the rotation has holes, and the bullpen lost closer Jose Valverde (25 saves, 2.33 ERA last season) and setup man LaTroy Hawkins (2.13 ERA). The bright spot is Rodriguez, an emerging ace.
Bench: C. With the addition of Pedro Feliz, Geoff Blum will return to a reserve role and add a powerful bat to the bench. Jeff Keppinger, who had a career-high seven homers in 2009, will serve as the middle-infield backup. Jason Michaels, a .228 hitter the past two seasons, is the fourth outfielder.
Manager: C. An incomplete might be more accurate, given that Mills’ has yet to manager his first major league game. Although he won’t have the talent he did while serving as Boston’s bench coach, Mills will have plenty of veterans to lean on in Houston. It remains to be seen, however, whether those veterans are in decline.
Sporting News prediction: With lingering questions about both the offense and the pitching staff, Houston is unlikely to improve upon its fifth-place finish from last season.
Coming Monday: Pirates preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
From 2005-08, the Astros’ .557 second-half winning percentage was tied for sixth-best in the majors. But instead of making a late-season run and vaulting into postseason contention last season, the Astros went 30-44 (.405) after the All-Star break — a slide that cost manager Cecil Cooper his job in late September. Enter Brad Mills, a managerial rookie who served as Red Sox bench coach the past six seasons. Mills inherits a 74-win squad that finished in fifth place in the NL Central.
Three quesions
Can Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman contribute like they have in the past?
1. Is Roy Oswalt still an ace?
For the first time in his career, Oswalt failed to achieve a double-digit win total in 2009. He finished 8-6 with a career-worst 4.12 ERA in 30 starts. It was the sixth consecutive season he made at least 30 starts, but the first time since 2003 that he failed to pitch at least 200 innings. Oswalt also battled back problems, leading to whispers that the 32-year-old is breaking down as a result of the wear and tear from his years of shouldering a heavy workload.
Because Wandy Rodriguez was the only other Astros starter with an ERA under 4.50 last season, the team needs Oswalt to return to pre-2009 form — or as close to it as possible. Newcomer Brett Myers is a question mark at No. 3, and the final two spots in the rotation are up for grabs, with Brian Moehler, Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino the top candidates.
2. Will this be Lance Berkman’s final season in Houston?
The last remaining Killer B is under contract through the 2011 season, but the Astros hold a $15 million option for next season. Berkman recently said he would be inclined to sign elsewhere if the Astros don’t exercise that option and allow him to become a free agent. His future could depend on whether he is able to bounce back from what statistically was the worst season of his career.
Limited to 136 games because of biceps and calf injuries, Berkman hit .274 with 25 homers and 80 RBIs in 2009. Not terrible numbers, but not up to par with his usual production. In 2006, Berkman hit .315 and established new career highs with 45 homers and 136 RBIs. At one point last season, Berkman had a 33-game homerless drought.
3. Will there be enough offense?
Houston finished 27th in the majors in runs scored and 25th in OPS last season, and it lost its second-best RBI man from last season when Miguel Tejada signed with the Orioles in the offseason. In addition to Berkman’s down season, Carlos Lee’s homer total dropped for a second consecutive year. As a result, leadoff man Michael Bourn failed to score 100 runs despite his career-best .354 on-base percentage and an NL-leading 61 steals.
Taking over for Tejada at shortstop will be defense-first Tommy Manzella, whose five career major league at-bats came late in 2009. "(Manzella has) done a great job through the minor leagues, and he’s been exceptional on the defensive end," Mills said.
Projected lineup
1. CF Michael Bourn: Must cut down on K’s (140 in ’09).
2. 2B Kaz Matsui: Just a .302 OBP last season.
3. 1B Lance Berkman: Switch hitter hit .231 vs. lefties.
4. LF Carlos Lee: .831 OPS was lowest since ’05.
5. RF Hunter Pence: .298 AVG, 11 HRs before break; .263 AVG, 14 HRs after.
6. 3B Pedro Feliz: .301 AVG, 18 RBIs in 25 career games at Minute Maid Park.
7. SS Tommy Manzella: 52 SBs, 19 triples in 5 minor league season.
8. C J.R. Towles: .188 AVG in 84 MLB games the past 3 seasons.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Roy Oswalt: 4.12 ERA at home and on road in ’09.
2. LHP Wandy Rodriguez: 9-3, 2.08 ERA at home; 5-9, 4.05 on road.
3. RHP Brett Myers: 6.43 ERA as RP after returning from hip surgery last season.
4. RHP Felipe Paulino: 4-12, 5.74 ERA in 20 career starts.
5. RHP Bud Norris: 3-0, 1.57 ERA in final 4 starts of ’09.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Brandon Lyon: 2.86 ERA in setup role with Tigers last season.
Grades
Offense: D. Despite playing in one of the majors’ most hitter-friendly parks, Houston was outscored by every NL team except the Pirates and Padres last season. And Houston finished 25th in homers. At least the Astros make contact; only the Mets finished with fewer strikeouts.
Pitching: D. Only six major league teams had a staff ERA worse than Houston’s 4.54 last season. The back end of the rotation has holes, and the bullpen lost closer Jose Valverde (25 saves, 2.33 ERA last season) and setup man LaTroy Hawkins (2.13 ERA). The bright spot is Rodriguez, an emerging ace.
Bench: C. With the addition of Pedro Feliz, Geoff Blum will return to a reserve role and add a powerful bat to the bench. Jeff Keppinger, who had a career-high seven homers in 2009, will serve as the middle-infield backup. Jason Michaels, a .228 hitter the past two seasons, is the fourth outfielder.
Manager: C. An incomplete might be more accurate, given that Mills’ has yet to manager his first major league game. Although he won’t have the talent he did while serving as Boston’s bench coach, Mills will have plenty of veterans to lean on in Houston. It remains to be seen, however, whether those veterans are in decline.
Sporting News prediction: With lingering questions about both the offense and the pitching staff, Houston is unlikely to improve upon its fifth-place finish from last season.
Coming Monday: Pirates preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
There isn’t an "under new management" sign hanging at Wrigley Field, but the Cubs finally have a new owner in place in Tom Ricketts. Ricketts has big plans for stadium improvements, with the clubhouse apparently first on the list in terms of upgrades. Players no longer will have to walk on eggshells now that the brief Milton Bradley era is history. The biggest question about the Cubs, of course, remains the same: Is this the year?
P Carlos Zambrano is one of two high-profile Cubs who shed weight in the offseason.
Three questions
1. Who will hit leadoff?
For the first time since 2007, it won’t be Alfonso Soriano, at least according to manager Lou Piniella. Miscast as the table-setter for several seasons — often out of necessity because of the team’s lack of alternatives — Soriano was dropped in the order during the 2009 season and now is penciled into the sixth spot. Soriano’s knee problems will limit the stolen-base ability that once made him attractive atop the order, and his power will result in better run production in the heart of the order.
One thing is clear: The team needs improvement from the 1-hole. Last season, Cubs leadoff hitters finished 27th in the majors with a .249 batting average and 21st with a .335 on-base percentage. Ryan Theriot is the front-runner for the job because, unlike Kosuke Fukudome, he will be an everyday fixture in the lineup. Theriot did a nice job — .283 average, .354 on-base percentage — in 194 plate appearances as the Cubs’ leadoff man in 2009.
2. Will less mean more?
Each trying to bounce back from a forgettable season, ace Carlos Zambrano and catcher Geovany Soto, the 2008 NL rookie of the year, worked hard to get into better shape over the offseason. Soto dropped close to 40 pounds, after dropping 67 points from his batting average last season. Zambrano, whose nine wins in 2009 were a career low for a full season, lost about 15 pounds.
Fitting into their skinny jeans is a nice payoff, but the main thing to glean here is the players’ dedication to improvement. Especially in the case of Zambrano, whose stuff and ability have been questioned far less than his drive. "I can tell you he’s got a lot of pride and he took to heart what happened last season," pitching coach Larry Rothschild said. As for Soto, he might not hit 23 homers (as he did in 2008), but his .381 slugging percentage is bound to tick upward.
3. Is the ninth inning in safe hands?
The Cubs ended the Kevin Gregg experiment by mid-August last season, following his sixth blown save. Carlos Marmol assumed the ninth-inning duties at that point and went 11-for-11 in save opportunities to finish the season. However, he wasn’t always squeaky-clean in the process. The knock on Marmol — and perhaps the reason he didn’t begin the 2009 season in the closer role — is his questionable control. During his impressive end-of-season run, he walked 13 batters in 17 2/3 innings. For the season, he issued 65 free passes in 74 innings.
Not only does the recent shoulder injury to setup man Angel Guzman significantly weaken the team’s eighth-inning situation, it eliminates a potential Plan B if Marmol should struggle.
Projected lineup
1. SS Ryan Theriot: Averaged 24 SBs past three seasons.
2. RF Kosuke Fukudome: .164 AVG vs. lefties; .270 vs. righties.
3. 1B Derrek Lee: Career-high 111 RBIs in ’09; in contract year.
4. 3B Aramis Ramirez: Career-best .389 OBP in injury-marred ’09.
5. CF Marlon Byrd: Led Rangers with 89 RBIs last season.
6. LF Alfonso Soriano: Career-worst .726 OPS in ’09.
7. C Geovany Soto: Hit into 19 double plays (second among Cs).
8. 2B Mike Fontenot: .246 OBP vs. lefties.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Carlos Zambrano: 1.37 WHIP worst among Cubs’ 09 SPs.
2. RHP Ryan Dempster: 4.09 ERA in first half; 3.15 after break.
3. RHP Randy Wells: Rookie’s 3.05 ERA was rotation’s best in ’09.
4. LHP Tom Gorzelanny:5.19 ERA after trade to Cubs last season.
5. RHP Jeff Samardzija: 10.80 ERA in 2 starts in ’09.
Projected closer
RHP Carlos Marmol: Held hitters to a .170 AVG
Grades
Offense: B. The Cubs went from second to 22nd in runs scored and from third to 16th in OBP last season. If Soriano and Aramis Ramirez are healthy, the lineup compares favorably to any in the NL, especially after the offseason addition of Marlon Byrd. But those are big "ifs," as is the production at the bottom and top of the order.
Pitching: C. The big concern is Ted Lilly, who is expected to begin the season on the disabled list after offseason shoulder surgery and knee problems this spring. But the developing late-inning drama also is a worry.
Bench: A. Xavier Nady was signed as the fourth outfielder but should be no worse than a platoon player in right field (and perhaps the starter). On the infield, Jeff Baker is in a similar situation, as he could overtake Mike Fontenot for the starting job at second. Micah Hoffpauir provides pop and can play first base as well as the corner outfield spots.
Manager: B. Lou Piniella has guided the team to the postseason twice in his three seasons at the helm, but has no playoff wins to show for it. This could be his final season in a Cubs uniform, and he has enough talent – and doesn’t have the Bradley headache — for another postseason run.
Sporting News prediction: After winning back-to-back NL Central titles in 2007-08, the Cubs are destined for a second consecutive second-place finish. But they should be squarely in the mix for the NL wild card.
Coming Wednesday: Brewers preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
There isn’t an "under new management" sign hanging at Wrigley Field, but the Cubs finally have a new owner in place in Tom Ricketts. Ricketts has big plans for stadium improvements, with the clubhouse apparently first on the list in terms of upgrades. Players no longer will have to walk on eggshells now that the brief Milton Bradley era is history. The biggest question about the Cubs, of course, remains the same: Is this the year?
P Carlos Zambrano is one of two high-profile Cubs who shed weight in the offseason.
Three questions
1. Who will hit leadoff?
For the first time since 2007, it won’t be Alfonso Soriano, at least according to manager Lou Piniella. Miscast as the table-setter for several seasons — often out of necessity because of the team’s lack of alternatives — Soriano was dropped in the order during the 2009 season and now is penciled into the sixth spot. Soriano’s knee problems will limit the stolen-base ability that once made him attractive atop the order, and his power will result in better run production in the heart of the order.
One thing is clear: The team needs improvement from the 1-hole. Last season, Cubs leadoff hitters finished 27th in the majors with a .249 batting average and 21st with a .335 on-base percentage. Ryan Theriot is the front-runner for the job because, unlike Kosuke Fukudome, he will be an everyday fixture in the lineup. Theriot did a nice job — .283 average, .354 on-base percentage — in 194 plate appearances as the Cubs’ leadoff man in 2009.
2. Will less mean more?
Each trying to bounce back from a forgettable season, ace Carlos Zambrano and catcher Geovany Soto, the 2008 NL rookie of the year, worked hard to get into better shape over the offseason. Soto dropped close to 40 pounds, after dropping 67 points from his batting average last season. Zambrano, whose nine wins in 2009 were a career low for a full season, lost about 15 pounds.
Fitting into their skinny jeans is a nice payoff, but the main thing to glean here is the players’ dedication to improvement. Especially in the case of Zambrano, whose stuff and ability have been questioned far less than his drive. "I can tell you he’s got a lot of pride and he took to heart what happened last season," pitching coach Larry Rothschild said. As for Soto, he might not hit 23 homers (as he did in 2008), but his .381 slugging percentage is bound to tick upward.
3. Is the ninth inning in safe hands?
The Cubs ended the Kevin Gregg experiment by mid-August last season, following his sixth blown save. Carlos Marmol assumed the ninth-inning duties at that point and went 11-for-11 in save opportunities to finish the season. However, he wasn’t always squeaky-clean in the process. The knock on Marmol — and perhaps the reason he didn’t begin the 2009 season in the closer role — is his questionable control. During his impressive end-of-season run, he walked 13 batters in 17 2/3 innings. For the season, he issued 65 free passes in 74 innings.
Not only does the recent shoulder injury to setup man Angel Guzman significantly weaken the team’s eighth-inning situation, it eliminates a potential Plan B if Marmol should struggle.
Projected lineup
1. SS Ryan Theriot: Averaged 24 SBs past three seasons.
2. RF Kosuke Fukudome: .164 AVG vs. lefties; .270 vs. righties.
3. 1B Derrek Lee: Career-high 111 RBIs in ’09; in contract year.
4. 3B Aramis Ramirez: Career-best .389 OBP in injury-marred ’09.
5. CF Marlon Byrd: Led Rangers with 89 RBIs last season.
6. LF Alfonso Soriano: Career-worst .726 OPS in ’09.
7. C Geovany Soto: Hit into 19 double plays (second among Cs).
8. 2B Mike Fontenot: .246 OBP vs. lefties.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Carlos Zambrano: 1.37 WHIP worst among Cubs’ 09 SPs.
2. RHP Ryan Dempster: 4.09 ERA in first half; 3.15 after break.
3. RHP Randy Wells: Rookie’s 3.05 ERA was rotation’s best in ’09.
4. LHP Tom Gorzelanny:5.19 ERA after trade to Cubs last season.
5. RHP Jeff Samardzija: 10.80 ERA in 2 starts in ’09.
Projected closer
RHP Carlos Marmol: Held hitters to a .170 AVG
Grades
Offense: B. The Cubs went from second to 22nd in runs scored and from third to 16th in OBP last season. If Soriano and Aramis Ramirez are healthy, the lineup compares favorably to any in the NL, especially after the offseason addition of Marlon Byrd. But those are big "ifs," as is the production at the bottom and top of the order.
Pitching: C. The big concern is Ted Lilly, who is expected to begin the season on the disabled list after offseason shoulder surgery and knee problems this spring. But the developing late-inning drama also is a worry.
Bench: A. Xavier Nady was signed as the fourth outfielder but should be no worse than a platoon player in right field (and perhaps the starter). On the infield, Jeff Baker is in a similar situation, as he could overtake Mike Fontenot for the starting job at second. Micah Hoffpauir provides pop and can play first base as well as the corner outfield spots.
Manager: B. Lou Piniella has guided the team to the postseason twice in his three seasons at the helm, but has no playoff wins to show for it. This could be his final season in a Cubs uniform, and he has enough talent – and doesn’t have the Bradley headache — for another postseason run.
Sporting News prediction: After winning back-to-back NL Central titles in 2007-08, the Cubs are destined for a second consecutive second-place finish. But they should be squarely in the mix for the NL wild card.
Coming Wednesday: Brewers preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
Just a couple of seasons removed from an ALCS loss to the Red Sox, the Indians are back in rebuilding mode. Last year’s 97-loss campaign left Cleveland in a last-place tie with Kansas City in the A.L. Central. The Indians have a new manager this season, will have a new general manager after the season and have plenty of offensive potential, but their biggest problem from 2009 remains a glaring weakness in 2010: pitching.
Having a healthy Jake Westbrook is important for the Indians.
1. Will the rotation get some veteran leadership?
There isn’t a CC Sabathia or a Cliff Lee, but there is a Jake Westbrook. A two-time 15-game winner, Westbrook missed the 2009 season after Tommy John surgery. But the better Westbrook pitches this season, the more likely it is that he will follow Sabathia and Lee out the door. Westbrook is in the final year of a contract that will pay him $11 million in 2010.
After going 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 2007, Fausto Carmona is 13-19 with a 5.89 ERA since. Further regression can’t be tolerated, especially with a group of still-developing arms behind the two veterans. "Having Jake Westbrook healthy is huge for us. I think he proved in winter ball that he’s ready to go. … Not only him staying healthy, but for Fausto to come back and pitch well for us. He made some adjustments in winter ball and looks like he’s on the right path," manager Manny Acta said.
2. Is it wise to remove Grady Sizemore from the leadoff spot?
All it took to make Sizemore’s long-anticipated drop in the batting order a reality was a managerial change. Acta announced last week that Sizemore would hit second, after serving as the team’s primary leadoff man the past five seasons. Given Sizemore’s power — he averaged 27 homers per season from 2005-08 before injuries limited him to 18 last season — he no longer was an ideal fit atop the order.
Sizemore, who is fully recovered from groin and elbow surgeries, will get more RBI opportunities — his career high is 90 RBIs — and better pitches to hit with emerging slugger Shin-Soo Choo hitting behind him.
3. How much does Pronk have left?
Travis Hafner drove in 100-plus runs each season from 2004-07 and hit 42 homers in 2006, but then came the shoulder problems that resulted in surgery. Although his power rebounded last season (16 homers), Hafner played in only 94 games. "He’s two years removed from that surgery. We’re anticipating him being able to be on the field more often," Acta said. "The fact that he’s healthy, it’s going to be a big lift for our lineup."
With a healthy Sizemore, the power-hitting Choo and new addition Russell Branyan, the Indians’ offense has potential to post some impressive production. Getting 130 games and 25 homers from Hafner would boost it even more.
PROJECTED LINEUP
1. SS Asdrubal Cabrera: .301 AVG, .340 OBP leading off in ’09.
2. CF Grady Sizemore: .216 AVG, .309 OBP vs. lefties in ’09.
3. RF Shin-Soo Choo: Only Indian with 20 HRs, 20 SBs last season. 4. DH Travis Hafner: .873 OPS at home; .768 on road in ’09.
5. 3B Jhonny Peralta: 11 HRs last season: career-low for full season.
6. 1B Russell Branyan: 28 HRs at Progressive Field (most at any park).
7. LF Matt LaPorta: Battling Michael Brantley for starting job.
8. 2B Luis Valbuena: Just a .298 OBP last season.
9. C Lou Marson: Soon could give way to Carlos Santana.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Fausto Carmona: Since ’08: 140 BBs, 137 Ks.
2. RHP Jake Westbrook: Career 1.38 WHIP is troubling.
3. RHP Justin Masterson: 4.32 ERA in career as SP; 3.28 as RP.
4. LHP Aaron Laffey: 2.85 ERA at home in ’09; 5.98 on road.
5. LHP David Huff: Allowed .317 AVG vs. lefties as rookie in ’09.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Kerry Wood: 5.28 ERA in first half of ’09, 2.96 ERA after break.
GRADES
Offense: B. Even with Sizemore and Hafner banged up and only one 20-homer hitter, the Indians finished 12th in the majors in runs scored and 10th in on-base percentage last season. With continued maturation from LaPorta and the addition of Branyan, there is room for improvement. The bottom of the order can’t be a black hole, however.
Pitching: F. The Indians’ 5.06 ERA was 29th in the majors, and the struggles were staff-wide. The starters’ 5.30 ERA ranked 28th; the relievers’ 4.63 ERA was 27th. Cleveland’s 25 saves tied for last in the majors, and the rotation’s 45 wins were 27th. The staff was 28th in baserunners allowed per nine innings and 29th in opponents’ batting average. And that was with four months of Cliff Lee.
Bench: D. The loser of the left field competition is expected to return to Class AAA, leaving second-year Trevor Crowe as the fourth outfielder. Disappointing Andy Marte provides corner-infield depth, with light-hitting Brian Bixler replacing Jamey Carroll in a super-utility role. Backup catcher Mike Redmond is around for his mentoring ability, not his bat.
Manager: C. Fired during the 2009 season by the last-place Nationals, Acta takes over the last-place Indians. As in Washington, he must try to find a way to boost a pitching staff that ranked among the majors’ worst — and wasn’t upgraded during the offseason. Acta will have a better offense in Cleveland, with several more promising prospects on the way.
Sporting News prediction: The rebuilding process rarely is a quick (or enjoyable) one, and even in a balanced division, the Indians once again will sink to the bottom.
COMING FRIDAY: Royals preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
Just a couple of seasons removed from an ALCS loss to the Red Sox, the Indians are back in rebuilding mode. Last year’s 97-loss campaign left Cleveland in a last-place tie with Kansas City in the A.L. Central. The Indians have a new manager this season, will have a new general manager after the season and have plenty of offensive potential, but their biggest problem from 2009 remains a glaring weakness in 2010: pitching.
Having a healthy Jake Westbrook is important for the Indians.
1. Will the rotation get some veteran leadership?
There isn’t a CC Sabathia or a Cliff Lee, but there is a Jake Westbrook. A two-time 15-game winner, Westbrook missed the 2009 season after Tommy John surgery. But the better Westbrook pitches this season, the more likely it is that he will follow Sabathia and Lee out the door. Westbrook is in the final year of a contract that will pay him $11 million in 2010.
After going 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 2007, Fausto Carmona is 13-19 with a 5.89 ERA since. Further regression can’t be tolerated, especially with a group of still-developing arms behind the two veterans. "Having Jake Westbrook healthy is huge for us. I think he proved in winter ball that he’s ready to go. … Not only him staying healthy, but for Fausto to come back and pitch well for us. He made some adjustments in winter ball and looks like he’s on the right path," manager Manny Acta said.
2. Is it wise to remove Grady Sizemore from the leadoff spot?
All it took to make Sizemore’s long-anticipated drop in the batting order a reality was a managerial change. Acta announced last week that Sizemore would hit second, after serving as the team’s primary leadoff man the past five seasons. Given Sizemore’s power — he averaged 27 homers per season from 2005-08 before injuries limited him to 18 last season — he no longer was an ideal fit atop the order.
Sizemore, who is fully recovered from groin and elbow surgeries, will get more RBI opportunities — his career high is 90 RBIs — and better pitches to hit with emerging slugger Shin-Soo Choo hitting behind him.
3. How much does Pronk have left?
Travis Hafner drove in 100-plus runs each season from 2004-07 and hit 42 homers in 2006, but then came the shoulder problems that resulted in surgery. Although his power rebounded last season (16 homers), Hafner played in only 94 games. "He’s two years removed from that surgery. We’re anticipating him being able to be on the field more often," Acta said. "The fact that he’s healthy, it’s going to be a big lift for our lineup."
With a healthy Sizemore, the power-hitting Choo and new addition Russell Branyan, the Indians’ offense has potential to post some impressive production. Getting 130 games and 25 homers from Hafner would boost it even more.
PROJECTED LINEUP
1. SS Asdrubal Cabrera: .301 AVG, .340 OBP leading off in ’09.
2. CF Grady Sizemore: .216 AVG, .309 OBP vs. lefties in ’09.
3. RF Shin-Soo Choo: Only Indian with 20 HRs, 20 SBs last season. 4. DH Travis Hafner: .873 OPS at home; .768 on road in ’09.
5. 3B Jhonny Peralta: 11 HRs last season: career-low for full season.
6. 1B Russell Branyan: 28 HRs at Progressive Field (most at any park).
7. LF Matt LaPorta: Battling Michael Brantley for starting job.
8. 2B Luis Valbuena: Just a .298 OBP last season.
9. C Lou Marson: Soon could give way to Carlos Santana.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Fausto Carmona: Since ’08: 140 BBs, 137 Ks.
2. RHP Jake Westbrook: Career 1.38 WHIP is troubling.
3. RHP Justin Masterson: 4.32 ERA in career as SP; 3.28 as RP.
4. LHP Aaron Laffey: 2.85 ERA at home in ’09; 5.98 on road.
5. LHP David Huff: Allowed .317 AVG vs. lefties as rookie in ’09.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Kerry Wood: 5.28 ERA in first half of ’09, 2.96 ERA after break.
GRADES
Offense: B. Even with Sizemore and Hafner banged up and only one 20-homer hitter, the Indians finished 12th in the majors in runs scored and 10th in on-base percentage last season. With continued maturation from LaPorta and the addition of Branyan, there is room for improvement. The bottom of the order can’t be a black hole, however.
Pitching: F. The Indians’ 5.06 ERA was 29th in the majors, and the struggles were staff-wide. The starters’ 5.30 ERA ranked 28th; the relievers’ 4.63 ERA was 27th. Cleveland’s 25 saves tied for last in the majors, and the rotation’s 45 wins were 27th. The staff was 28th in baserunners allowed per nine innings and 29th in opponents’ batting average. And that was with four months of Cliff Lee.
Bench: D. The loser of the left field competition is expected to return to Class AAA, leaving second-year Trevor Crowe as the fourth outfielder. Disappointing Andy Marte provides corner-infield depth, with light-hitting Brian Bixler replacing Jamey Carroll in a super-utility role. Backup catcher Mike Redmond is around for his mentoring ability, not his bat.
Manager: C. Fired during the 2009 season by the last-place Nationals, Acta takes over the last-place Indians. As in Washington, he must try to find a way to boost a pitching staff that ranked among the majors’ worst — and wasn’t upgraded during the offseason. Acta will have a better offense in Cleveland, with several more promising prospects on the way.
Sporting News prediction: The rebuilding process rarely is a quick (or enjoyable) one, and even in a balanced division, the Indians once again will sink to the bottom.
COMING FRIDAY: Royals preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
The Braves hope to reclaim the NL East title in manager Bobby Cox’s final season.
After a run of 14 consecutive division titles, Bobby Cox’s Braves haven’t been to the postseason since 2005. Atlanta would like nothing more than to make another October run in what will be Cox’s final season. The Braves won 86 games in 2009 and finished with the majors’ sixth-best run differential (+94) but fell six games short of the postseason. Pitching will lead their charge this season, though good health also will be vital.
Three questions
1. Is the pitching staff better?
With a surplus of starting pitchers, the Braves sold high on Javier Vazquez, who had a career year in 2009 (15-10, 2.87 ERA, 238 strikeouts). They also lost their top two relievers, trading Rafael Soriano (27 saves, 2.97 ERA) and allowing Mike Gonzalez (10 saves, 2.42 ERA) to leave via free agency. Signed to take their place: setup man Takashi Saito and closer Billy Wagner, both of whom finished the 2009 season with Boston.
Even without Vazquez, the Braves boast arguably the deepest and best rotation in the National League. Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens finished 2009 with sub-3.00 ERAs, and Tim Hudson will be a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery. "Their starting rotation, one through five, is going to hold some teams down," Braves TV analyst Brian Jordan said. "The bullpen looks great. I really think they upgraded the bullpen."
2. Can Troy Glaus stay healthy?
The Braves hope a move from third base to first base, where Glaus has played only six games as a major leaguer (he has played thrice that many games at shortstop), will reduce the wear and tear on his shoulder. Because of shoulder surgery, Glaus didn’t play until Sept. 2 last season and hit just .172 with no homers in 32 plate appearances. However, he hit 27 homers in 2008 and is only four years removed from a 38-homer season.
Braves first basemen hit just 19 homers last season — tied for 22nd in the majors — and 12 of those came from late-season acquisition Adam LaRoche. They finished tied for 24th with 86 RBIs, with LaRoche accounting for 40 of those. A healthy and productive Glaus would go a long way toward the Braves’ reaching their goal of more run production.
3. Will Jason Heyward break camp with the team?
As promising as the 20-year-old prospect is and as badly as the Braves need offense, it is important to note that Heyward has played in just 50 games above the Class A level and just three games at the Class AAA level. With Nate McLouth, Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera as starting options, there is no need to rush Heyward.
Still, a strong spring by Heyward could make it impossible for the Braves to turn to anyone else as their starting right fielder. Heyward can hit for average (.318 in the minors) and power (17 homers last season), can run (26 steals over three seasons) and throw (12 outfield assists last season) and has a career .391 on-base percentage in the minors.
Atlanta’s formidable rotation includes Tommy Hanson, who is coming off a stellar rookie season.
Projected lineup
1. CF Nate McLouth: .208 average at Turner Field in ’09.
2. 2B Martin Prado: Hit .300-plus four of six months.
3. 3B Chipper Jones: Average dropped 100 points in ’09.
4. 1B Troy Glaus: .236 career average as cleanup hitter.
5. C Brian McCann: 57 of 94 RBIs came after break.
6. SS Yunel Escobar: Career highs in ’09: 14 HRs, 76 RBIs.
7. LF Matt Diaz: Hit .412 vs. lefthanders.
8. RF Melky Cabrera: Career-best 13 HRs in ’09.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Tim Hudson: 3.61 ERA in seven starts in ’09.
2. RHP Derek Lowe: 3.44 through June 9, 5.59 ERA after.
3. RHP Jair Jurrjens: 16th in MLB with .237 BAA.
4. RHP Tommy Hanson: 33 of 46 BBs were vs. lefthanders.
5. RHP Kenshin Kawakami: Seven home losses, despite 3.65 ERA.
Projected closer
LHP Billy Wagner: 26 K’s in 15 2/3 IP after return.
Grades
Offense: C. Atlanta was 17th in runs and OPS and 22nd in homers in 2009. And it didn’t acquire the big bat — either in free agency or in exchange for Vazquez — that many felt it needed. Glaus could provide the power the Braves desire, and a bounce-back season form Chipper Jones also would be welcome.
Pitching: A. The Braves finished third in the majors with a 3.57 ERA last season and could be even better if Wagner and Hudson are 100 percent. Hanson, 23, and Jurrjens, who just turned 24, have yet to approach their ceiling. Derek Lowe must bounce back after a poor second half.
Bench: B. Good-luck charm Eric Hinske, who has played in the past three World Series, provides some pop and versatility. Omar Infante, who started at six positions in 2009, posted a career-best .361 on-base percentage and .305 batting average. If Heyward starts, the bench would get a boost with the addition of Cabrera/Diaz.
Manager: A. The foundation of Cox’s great Braves teams was pitching, and he certainly has the arms to return to the postseason. Known as a player’s manager, Cox will extract every ounce of effort from his squad as he attempts to add another ring and reach 2,500 career wins (he is 87 short).
Sporting News prediction: Atlanta should close the gap on the Phillies in the NL East, but its main focus will be on a hotly-contested race for the NL wild card.
Coming Thursday: Mets preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
The Braves hope to reclaim the NL East title in manager Bobby Cox’s final season.
After a run of 14 consecutive division titles, Bobby Cox’s Braves haven’t been to the postseason since 2005. Atlanta would like nothing more than to make another October run in what will be Cox’s final season. The Braves won 86 games in 2009 and finished with the majors’ sixth-best run differential (+94) but fell six games short of the postseason. Pitching will lead their charge this season, though good health also will be vital.
Three questions
1. Is the pitching staff better?
With a surplus of starting pitchers, the Braves sold high on Javier Vazquez, who had a career year in 2009 (15-10, 2.87 ERA, 238 strikeouts). They also lost their top two relievers, trading Rafael Soriano (27 saves, 2.97 ERA) and allowing Mike Gonzalez (10 saves, 2.42 ERA) to leave via free agency. Signed to take their place: setup man Takashi Saito and closer Billy Wagner, both of whom finished the 2009 season with Boston.
Even without Vazquez, the Braves boast arguably the deepest and best rotation in the National League. Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens finished 2009 with sub-3.00 ERAs, and Tim Hudson will be a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery. "Their starting rotation, one through five, is going to hold some teams down," Braves TV analyst Brian Jordan said. "The bullpen looks great. I really think they upgraded the bullpen."
2. Can Troy Glaus stay healthy?
The Braves hope a move from third base to first base, where Glaus has played only six games as a major leaguer (he has played thrice that many games at shortstop), will reduce the wear and tear on his shoulder. Because of shoulder surgery, Glaus didn’t play until Sept. 2 last season and hit just .172 with no homers in 32 plate appearances. However, he hit 27 homers in 2008 and is only four years removed from a 38-homer season.
Braves first basemen hit just 19 homers last season — tied for 22nd in the majors — and 12 of those came from late-season acquisition Adam LaRoche. They finished tied for 24th with 86 RBIs, with LaRoche accounting for 40 of those. A healthy and productive Glaus would go a long way toward the Braves’ reaching their goal of more run production.
3. Will Jason Heyward break camp with the team?
As promising as the 20-year-old prospect is and as badly as the Braves need offense, it is important to note that Heyward has played in just 50 games above the Class A level and just three games at the Class AAA level. With Nate McLouth, Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera as starting options, there is no need to rush Heyward.
Still, a strong spring by Heyward could make it impossible for the Braves to turn to anyone else as their starting right fielder. Heyward can hit for average (.318 in the minors) and power (17 homers last season), can run (26 steals over three seasons) and throw (12 outfield assists last season) and has a career .391 on-base percentage in the minors.
Atlanta’s formidable rotation includes Tommy Hanson, who is coming off a stellar rookie season.
Projected lineup
1. CF Nate McLouth: .208 average at Turner Field in ’09.
2. 2B Martin Prado: Hit .300-plus four of six months.
3. 3B Chipper Jones: Average dropped 100 points in ’09.
4. 1B Troy Glaus: .236 career average as cleanup hitter.
5. C Brian McCann: 57 of 94 RBIs came after break.
6. SS Yunel Escobar: Career highs in ’09: 14 HRs, 76 RBIs.
7. LF Matt Diaz: Hit .412 vs. lefthanders.
8. RF Melky Cabrera: Career-best 13 HRs in ’09.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Tim Hudson: 3.61 ERA in seven starts in ’09.
2. RHP Derek Lowe: 3.44 through June 9, 5.59 ERA after.
3. RHP Jair Jurrjens: 16th in MLB with .237 BAA.
4. RHP Tommy Hanson: 33 of 46 BBs were vs. lefthanders.
5. RHP Kenshin Kawakami: Seven home losses, despite 3.65 ERA.
Projected closer
LHP Billy Wagner: 26 K’s in 15 2/3 IP after return.
Grades
Offense: C. Atlanta was 17th in runs and OPS and 22nd in homers in 2009. And it didn’t acquire the big bat — either in free agency or in exchange for Vazquez — that many felt it needed. Glaus could provide the power the Braves desire, and a bounce-back season form Chipper Jones also would be welcome.
Pitching: A. The Braves finished third in the majors with a 3.57 ERA last season and could be even better if Wagner and Hudson are 100 percent. Hanson, 23, and Jurrjens, who just turned 24, have yet to approach their ceiling. Derek Lowe must bounce back after a poor second half.
Bench: B. Good-luck charm Eric Hinske, who has played in the past three World Series, provides some pop and versatility. Omar Infante, who started at six positions in 2009, posted a career-best .361 on-base percentage and .305 batting average. If Heyward starts, the bench would get a boost with the addition of Cabrera/Diaz.
Manager: A. The foundation of Cox’s great Braves teams was pitching, and he certainly has the arms to return to the postseason. Known as a player’s manager, Cox will extract every ounce of effort from his squad as he attempts to add another ring and reach 2,500 career wins (he is 87 short).
Sporting News prediction: Atlanta should close the gap on the Phillies in the NL East, but its main focus will be on a hotly-contested race for the NL wild card.
Coming Thursday: Mets preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
After 12 consecutive losing seasons and back-to-back last-place finishes, the Orioles had a productive offseason. They added four veterans — two corner infielders, a No. 1 starter and a closer — to a core that features several in-their-prime hitters as well as several ready-for-prime-time youngsters. However, Baltimore still plays in the majors’ toughest division, and bad luck already has struck: Righthander Brad Bergesen injured his shoulder while filming an Orioles TV commercial in December.
Kevin Millwood’s veteran leadership should give the Orioles a nice anchor atop their rotation.
Three questions
1. How much better will the rotation be?
It can’t be much worse. Orioles starters finished last in the A.L. and 29th in the majors with a 5.37 ERA last season. Jeremy Guthrie led the Orioles with 10 wins last season but also had 17 losses and a 5.04 ERA. Enter Kevin Millwood, acquired from the Rangers this offseason. Millwood is the veteran workhorse this young rotation needs. "I don’t think a lot of people realize his ERA was as low as it was—and he pitched in Texas," Orioles Hall of Fame righthander Jim Palmer said. "He should help everybody. He’s been around. He came up with Atlanta, so he was there with (John) Smoltz, he was there with (Tom) Glavine, he was there with (Greg) Maddux. He’s a No. 1 guy on that staff and takes a lot of pressure off Guthrie."
Still, the back of the rotation is young, with Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Bergesen having combined for 39 career starts—all last season.
2. Can Miguel Tejada play third base?
For several seasons, Tejada resisted making the move from shortstop to third. However, as he entered free agency this offseason, he admitted it was time for the change. Orioles third basemen (namely, Melvin Mora) finished fifth in the majors with a .968 fielding percentage in 2009, so the bar is set high.
In his 13-season major league career, Tejada has played no defensive position other than short. The Orioles know he isn’t the hitter he was during his first go-round with the team (2004-07), but they have to hope Tejada can follow in the footsteps of another well-known shortstop who made the same transition late in his career. Some guy named Cal Ripken. Until we see Tejada at the hot corner in spring training, the jury is out.
3. Will Garrett Atkins rediscover his stroke?
Atkins, primarily a third baseman in his career, will take over at first. But the Orioles signed him for his bat, not his glove. Trouble is, Atkins, who averaged a .305-25-110 stat line with Colorado from 2006-08, slumped to .226-9-48 last season. The Rockies nontendered him in December.
"We are confident that Atkins will have a year more in line with what he showed three out of the last four seasons," manager Dave Trembley said. "A new league, a guy (who) has proven he is an RBI guy and I have a lot of confidence in Terry Crowley, our hitting instructor, to get Atkins back on track."
Projected lineup
1. 2B Brian Roberts: Led majors with 56 doubles.
2. CF Adam Jones: Breakout season: 19 HRs, 70 RBIs in 119 games.
3. RF Nick Markakis: OPS dropped from .897 to .801.
4. 3B Miguel Tejada: Career .321 AVG at Camden Yards.
5. C Matt Wieters: Hit .312 at home, .265 on road.
6. LF Nolan Reimold: Team-best .831 OPS in rookie season.
7. DH Luke Scott: Career-best 25 HRs led team.
8. 1B Garrett Atkins: Hit .199 vs. righthanders.
9. SS Cesar Izturis: Has a career .298 OBP.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Kevin Millwood: 3.17 ERA at hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark.
2. RHP Jeremy Guthrie: No months with a sub-4.50 ERA.
3. LHP Brian Matusz: Allowed .315 BA vs. righthanders.
4. RHP Brad Bergesen: 7-1, 268 ERA at home; 0-4, 4.56 on road.
5. RHP Chris Tillman: 15 HRS allowed in 65 IP.
Projected closer
LHP Mike Gonzalez: Career-high 90 K’s in 74 1/3 innings for Braves.
Grades
Offense: B. The Orioles finished in the middle of the pack in most key offensive categories, but this unit has top-10 potential. Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold and Nick Markakis are arguably the majors’ most underrated outfield trio, and there is speed atop the order with power throughout.
Pitching: D. The rotation has plenty to prove, and the relievers’ 4.78 ERA ranked 28th in the majors. Millwood will help, and Mike Gonzalez will fill the ninth-inning void left by the trade of George Sherrill late last season. Much will depend on the young arms’ maturation and Guthrie’s bounce-back ability.
Bench: C. Assuming he isn’t dealt, Ty Wigginton provides plenty of versatility and some pop. Outfielder Felix Pie finally broke through in 2009, hitting nine homers in a reserve role. Robert Andino can play just about anywhere but hit just .222 last season (nine points better than his career average).
Manager: C. In his first two full seasons in Baltimore, Trembley is 132-191 (.409 winning percentage). However, he hasn’t had much with which to work — until now. He has a nice mix of veterans and emerging youngsters, and improvement will be expected.
Sporting News prediction: With so many promising young stars reaching the majors, there finally is hope. Unfortunately, it won’t translate to more than a fourth-place finish in MLB’s toughest division.
Coming Monday: Phillies preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
After 12 consecutive losing seasons and back-to-back last-place finishes, the Orioles had a productive offseason. They added four veterans — two corner infielders, a No. 1 starter and a closer — to a core that features several in-their-prime hitters as well as several ready-for-prime-time youngsters. However, Baltimore still plays in the majors’ toughest division, and bad luck already has struck: Righthander Brad Bergesen injured his shoulder while filming an Orioles TV commercial in December.
Kevin Millwood’s veteran leadership should give the Orioles a nice anchor atop their rotation.
Three questions
1. How much better will the rotation be?
It can’t be much worse. Orioles starters finished last in the A.L. and 29th in the majors with a 5.37 ERA last season. Jeremy Guthrie led the Orioles with 10 wins last season but also had 17 losses and a 5.04 ERA. Enter Kevin Millwood, acquired from the Rangers this offseason. Millwood is the veteran workhorse this young rotation needs. "I don’t think a lot of people realize his ERA was as low as it was—and he pitched in Texas," Orioles Hall of Fame righthander Jim Palmer said. "He should help everybody. He’s been around. He came up with Atlanta, so he was there with (John) Smoltz, he was there with (Tom) Glavine, he was there with (Greg) Maddux. He’s a No. 1 guy on that staff and takes a lot of pressure off Guthrie."
Still, the back of the rotation is young, with Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Bergesen having combined for 39 career starts—all last season.
2. Can Miguel Tejada play third base?
For several seasons, Tejada resisted making the move from shortstop to third. However, as he entered free agency this offseason, he admitted it was time for the change. Orioles third basemen (namely, Melvin Mora) finished fifth in the majors with a .968 fielding percentage in 2009, so the bar is set high.
In his 13-season major league career, Tejada has played no defensive position other than short. The Orioles know he isn’t the hitter he was during his first go-round with the team (2004-07), but they have to hope Tejada can follow in the footsteps of another well-known shortstop who made the same transition late in his career. Some guy named Cal Ripken. Until we see Tejada at the hot corner in spring training, the jury is out.
3. Will Garrett Atkins rediscover his stroke?
Atkins, primarily a third baseman in his career, will take over at first. But the Orioles signed him for his bat, not his glove. Trouble is, Atkins, who averaged a .305-25-110 stat line with Colorado from 2006-08, slumped to .226-9-48 last season. The Rockies nontendered him in December.
"We are confident that Atkins will have a year more in line with what he showed three out of the last four seasons," manager Dave Trembley said. "A new league, a guy (who) has proven he is an RBI guy and I have a lot of confidence in Terry Crowley, our hitting instructor, to get Atkins back on track."
Projected lineup
1. 2B Brian Roberts: Led majors with 56 doubles.
2. CF Adam Jones: Breakout season: 19 HRs, 70 RBIs in 119 games.
3. RF Nick Markakis: OPS dropped from .897 to .801.
4. 3B Miguel Tejada: Career .321 AVG at Camden Yards.
5. C Matt Wieters: Hit .312 at home, .265 on road.
6. LF Nolan Reimold: Team-best .831 OPS in rookie season.
7. DH Luke Scott: Career-best 25 HRs led team.
8. 1B Garrett Atkins: Hit .199 vs. righthanders.
9. SS Cesar Izturis: Has a career .298 OBP.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Kevin Millwood: 3.17 ERA at hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark.
2. RHP Jeremy Guthrie: No months with a sub-4.50 ERA.
3. LHP Brian Matusz: Allowed .315 BA vs. righthanders.
4. RHP Brad Bergesen: 7-1, 268 ERA at home; 0-4, 4.56 on road.
5. RHP Chris Tillman: 15 HRS allowed in 65 IP.
Projected closer
LHP Mike Gonzalez: Career-high 90 K’s in 74 1/3 innings for Braves.
Grades
Offense: B. The Orioles finished in the middle of the pack in most key offensive categories, but this unit has top-10 potential. Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold and Nick Markakis are arguably the majors’ most underrated outfield trio, and there is speed atop the order with power throughout.
Pitching: D. The rotation has plenty to prove, and the relievers’ 4.78 ERA ranked 28th in the majors. Millwood will help, and Mike Gonzalez will fill the ninth-inning void left by the trade of George Sherrill late last season. Much will depend on the young arms’ maturation and Guthrie’s bounce-back ability.
Bench: C. Assuming he isn’t dealt, Ty Wigginton provides plenty of versatility and some pop. Outfielder Felix Pie finally broke through in 2009, hitting nine homers in a reserve role. Robert Andino can play just about anywhere but hit just .222 last season (nine points better than his career average).
Manager: C. In his first two full seasons in Baltimore, Trembley is 132-191 (.409 winning percentage). However, he hasn’t had much with which to work — until now. He has a nice mix of veterans and emerging youngsters, and improvement will be expected.
Sporting News prediction: With so many promising young stars reaching the majors, there finally is hope. Unfortunately, it won’t translate to more than a fourth-place finish in MLB’s toughest division.
Coming Monday: Phillies preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
The remixed Red Sox will feature new starters at five of the eight defensive positions, as compared to opening day 2009. And they could look even more different in 2011, as David Ortiz, Josh Beckett, Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell all are in the final years of their contracts. In addition to the new faces this season, there is a new approach. Actually, it is a return to an old approach: defense and pitching.
The Red Sox won the John Lackey pursuit, and Daisuke Matsuzaka could wind up in the bullpen.
Three questions
1. Do they have enough offense?
The same question was asked when Boston traded Manny Ramirez in July 2008. But Jason Bay filled in admirably, outproducing Manny from that point through the 2009 season. Bay is gone now, and the team didn’t sign a run producer to replace him. Instead, the Red Sox put an emphasis on run prevention with the acquisitions of center fielder Mike Cameron, third baseman Adrian Beltre and righthander John Lackey. It would help if the move to hitter-friendly Fenway Park revived Beltre’s bat and if Cameron chipped in with 20-plus homers.
Still, the Red Sox seem content. "Our goal is not to have the most prolific offense, although we wouldn’t complain if that turns out to be the case," Red Sox manager Terry Francona says. "Our goal is to try and win the most games possible in a very difficult division. We feel like we potentially have a very strong pitching staff, and if our defense plays up to its capabilities our staff should be even stronger."
2. Who will be left out of the rotation?
Clay Buchholz went 7-4 with a 4.21 ERA after replacing the injured Tim Wakefield in the rotation in the second half of 2009. His time has come. But it is easy to forget that Wakefield was 11-3 with a 4.31 ERA and was named to his first All-Star team before injuring his back. Francona has stated that he doesn’t want to use Wakefield in relief, and Wakefield doesn’t want to be a spot-starter. The key to the equation could be Daisuke Matsuzaka, who hid an injury at the start of last season and finished with a 5.76 ERA. If he struggles again, Dice-K could be bullpen-bound.
3. Will Big Papi homer before June?
Although Ortiz rebounded to finish with 28 homers and 99 RBIs, he didn’t homer until May 20 (in his 164th plate appearance of the season). While Ortiz’s final power numbers were respectable, his .238 batting average and .332 on-base percentage were his lowest for any season in which he played at least 90 games. There is little doubt that Varitek and Lowell, two other solid veteran leaders, are in decline. With the offense perhaps already a bat short, Ortiz must prove he can recapture some of the magic that once made him arguably the best clutch hitter in the majors. He will have extra incentive to do so in a contract year.
Projected lineup
1. LF Jacoby Ellsbury: Led MLB with 70 SBs, A.L. with 10 triples.
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia: 233 runs over past 2 years lead MLB.
3. C Victor Martinez: 41 RBIs, .912 OPS in 56 games with Red Sox.
4. 1B Kevin Youkilis: .413 OBP, .961 OPS were career highs.
5. DH David Ortiz: 27 HRs, 78 RBIs after June 6 led A.L.
6. RF J.D. Drew: 24 HRs were most since 2004 (31).
7. CF Mike Cameron: 20-plus HRs, 140-plus K’s past 4 seasons.
8. 3B Adrian Beltre: .179 AVG, 0 HRs in 56 career ABs at Fenway.
9. SS Marco Scutaro: Career-best .379 OBP with Jays ’09.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Josh Beckett: 10-1, 3.59 ERA at home last season.
2. LHP Jon Lester: 2.31 ERA after May 30 was 4th-best in MLB.
3. RHP John Lackey: 5.75 ERA in 9 regular season starts at Fenway.
4. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka: 8.23 ERA before D.L. stint; 2.22 after.
5. RHP Clay Buchholz: 9 quality starts in final 12 starts.
Projected closerR
RHP Jonathan Papelbon: 24 BBs a concern, but 18 came before break.
Grades
Offense: B. They are due for a drop-off, but there still is plenty to like. Dustin Pedroia was an MVP in 2008, Kevin Youkilis can hit for power and average and Victor Martinez will be around for a full season. In addition, Beltre’s bat could awaken at Fenway Park, Cameron should be good for 20 homers and Marco Scutaro is coming off a career year.
Pitching: A. With the addition of Lackey, the Red Sox have the best Nos. 1-3 starters in the majors. And depth behind them. Despite losing Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, the bullpen still is loaded. And Jonathan Papelbon, while not as dominant in 2009, still ranks among the best closers in the majors.
Bench: C. There should be plenty of experience, even if third baseman Mike Lowell is traded before the season. Captain Jason Varitek, a 13-season veteran, now is in a backup role. The infield reserves include Bill Hall, who hit 35 homers in 2006 but has just 37 since, and Jed Lowrie, who has battled a troublesome wrist. In the outfield, Jeremy Hermida and Josh Reddick supply depth.
Manager: B. In his seventh season with Boston, Francona will have to adapt to a new philosophy. But there is little reason to think that will be a problem. With two World Series titles on his resume, Francona has proven to be a solid tactician and great handler of talent (and egos).
Sporting News prediction: Few teams, if any, can match Boston’s pitching, which will result in a seventh trip to the postseason in the past eight years. As a wild card.
COMING WEDNESDAY: Rays preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
The remixed Red Sox will feature new starters at five of the eight defensive positions, as compared to opening day 2009. And they could look even more different in 2011, as David Ortiz, Josh Beckett, Jason Varitek and Mike Lowell all are in the final years of their contracts. In addition to the new faces this season, there is a new approach. Actually, it is a return to an old approach: defense and pitching.
The Red Sox won the John Lackey pursuit, and Daisuke Matsuzaka could wind up in the bullpen.
Three questions
1. Do they have enough offense?
The same question was asked when Boston traded Manny Ramirez in July 2008. But Jason Bay filled in admirably, outproducing Manny from that point through the 2009 season. Bay is gone now, and the team didn’t sign a run producer to replace him. Instead, the Red Sox put an emphasis on run prevention with the acquisitions of center fielder Mike Cameron, third baseman Adrian Beltre and righthander John Lackey. It would help if the move to hitter-friendly Fenway Park revived Beltre’s bat and if Cameron chipped in with 20-plus homers.
Still, the Red Sox seem content. "Our goal is not to have the most prolific offense, although we wouldn’t complain if that turns out to be the case," Red Sox manager Terry Francona says. "Our goal is to try and win the most games possible in a very difficult division. We feel like we potentially have a very strong pitching staff, and if our defense plays up to its capabilities our staff should be even stronger."
2. Who will be left out of the rotation?
Clay Buchholz went 7-4 with a 4.21 ERA after replacing the injured Tim Wakefield in the rotation in the second half of 2009. His time has come. But it is easy to forget that Wakefield was 11-3 with a 4.31 ERA and was named to his first All-Star team before injuring his back. Francona has stated that he doesn’t want to use Wakefield in relief, and Wakefield doesn’t want to be a spot-starter. The key to the equation could be Daisuke Matsuzaka, who hid an injury at the start of last season and finished with a 5.76 ERA. If he struggles again, Dice-K could be bullpen-bound.
3. Will Big Papi homer before June?
Although Ortiz rebounded to finish with 28 homers and 99 RBIs, he didn’t homer until May 20 (in his 164th plate appearance of the season). While Ortiz’s final power numbers were respectable, his .238 batting average and .332 on-base percentage were his lowest for any season in which he played at least 90 games. There is little doubt that Varitek and Lowell, two other solid veteran leaders, are in decline. With the offense perhaps already a bat short, Ortiz must prove he can recapture some of the magic that once made him arguably the best clutch hitter in the majors. He will have extra incentive to do so in a contract year.
Projected lineup
1. LF Jacoby Ellsbury: Led MLB with 70 SBs, A.L. with 10 triples.
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia: 233 runs over past 2 years lead MLB.
3. C Victor Martinez: 41 RBIs, .912 OPS in 56 games with Red Sox.
4. 1B Kevin Youkilis: .413 OBP, .961 OPS were career highs.
5. DH David Ortiz: 27 HRs, 78 RBIs after June 6 led A.L.
6. RF J.D. Drew: 24 HRs were most since 2004 (31).
7. CF Mike Cameron: 20-plus HRs, 140-plus K’s past 4 seasons.
8. 3B Adrian Beltre: .179 AVG, 0 HRs in 56 career ABs at Fenway.
9. SS Marco Scutaro: Career-best .379 OBP with Jays ’09.
Projected rotation
1. RHP Josh Beckett: 10-1, 3.59 ERA at home last season.
2. LHP Jon Lester: 2.31 ERA after May 30 was 4th-best in MLB.
3. RHP John Lackey: 5.75 ERA in 9 regular season starts at Fenway.
4. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka: 8.23 ERA before D.L. stint; 2.22 after.
5. RHP Clay Buchholz: 9 quality starts in final 12 starts.
Projected closerR
RHP Jonathan Papelbon: 24 BBs a concern, but 18 came before break.
Grades
Offense: B. They are due for a drop-off, but there still is plenty to like. Dustin Pedroia was an MVP in 2008, Kevin Youkilis can hit for power and average and Victor Martinez will be around for a full season. In addition, Beltre’s bat could awaken at Fenway Park, Cameron should be good for 20 homers and Marco Scutaro is coming off a career year.
Pitching: A. With the addition of Lackey, the Red Sox have the best Nos. 1-3 starters in the majors. And depth behind them. Despite losing Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, the bullpen still is loaded. And Jonathan Papelbon, while not as dominant in 2009, still ranks among the best closers in the majors.
Bench: C. There should be plenty of experience, even if third baseman Mike Lowell is traded before the season. Captain Jason Varitek, a 13-season veteran, now is in a backup role. The infield reserves include Bill Hall, who hit 35 homers in 2006 but has just 37 since, and Jed Lowrie, who has battled a troublesome wrist. In the outfield, Jeremy Hermida and Josh Reddick supply depth.
Manager: B. In his seventh season with Boston, Francona will have to adapt to a new philosophy. But there is little reason to think that will be a problem. With two World Series titles on his resume, Francona has proven to be a solid tactician and great handler of talent (and egos).
Sporting News prediction: Few teams, if any, can match Boston’s pitching, which will result in a seventh trip to the postseason in the past eight years. As a wild card.
COMING WEDNESDAY: Rays preview.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
Spring training often resembles a working vacation for most veterans. You know, put in a couple innings of work and then call for your tee time. However, the list of proven veteran players who slumped in 2009 is a long one. For those players, regaining their confidence/swing/swagger starts when they report to their Grapefruit League or Cactus League camp. Which disappointing player from last season is in most desperate need of a strong spring?
Stan McNeal makes his case for Dodgers left fielder Manny Ramirez, but Chris Bahr says it is Cubs left field Alfonso Soriano who most needs to recapture his productive form:
Four years ago while playing with the Nationals, Alfonso Soriano joined the uber-exclusive 40-40 club during a contract year. He quickly cashed in, signing an eight-year, $136 million deal with the Cubs a couple of months before his 30th birthday.
Alfonso Soriano needs to shake off his injury woes to return to his old form.
Beginning this season (and running through the 2014 season), Soriano will earn $18 million annually. His contract was backloaded, but the opposite apparently was true of his production. At least the Cubs don’t have to worry about paying him a $75,000 bonus for winning a Gold Glove.
If the Cubs are going to compete this season — with spring training quickly approaching, there doesn’t appear to be the usual level of this is THE year hype — several things will have to happen. They are going to need a stronger effort from their rotation, better luck in terms of health and a return to form by Soriano. The Cubs fell off the map offensively in 2009, and Soriano’s bat can help rescue them from the depths to which they sank.
Soriano’s revival must start with a strong spring. But what are the chances Soriano will deliver?
The obstacles
Eroding production. Soriano’s homer totals and OPS have dropped in each of the past three seasons, and 2009 was the first full season of his career when he failed to reach double digits in steals.
Health. Over the past two seasons, Soriano has missed 98 games (after missing 42 from 2001-06). That has contributed to his offensive decline, and it is cause for serious alarm.
Xavier Nady’s arrival. Assuming Nady’s troublesome elbow (two Tommy John surgeries) is healthy, he is expected to cut into right fielder Kosuke Fukudome’s playing time. But if Soriano gets off to a slow start, he often could find himself on the bench in favor of Nady.
The optimism
Rudy Jaramillo. The hitting guru brought out the best in Soriano (.274-64-195) during their two years together in Texas. The Cubs hired Jaramillo to repair an offense that finished 21st in OPS, 22nd in runs and 26th in batting average last season.
Lineup position. Soriano might be miscast as a left fielder, but he no longer is miscast as a leadoff man. He is expected to hit fifth this season, and that should result more RBI opportunities and less pressure. In his three seasons with Chicago (primarily in the leadoff spot), Soriano has averaged 27 homers but just 67 RBIs.
More protection. A healthy Aramis Ramirez, who missed much of 2009 because of a shoulder injury and wasn’t 100 percent when he returned, will be key. The addition of center fielder Marlon Byrd (and the subtraction of Milton Bradley) also will be a boost.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
Spring training often resembles a working vacation for most veterans. You know, put in a couple innings of work and then call for your tee time. However, the list of proven veteran players who slumped in 2009 is a long one. For those players, regaining their confidence/swing/swagger starts when they report to their Grapefruit League or Cactus League camp. Which disappointing player from last season is in most desperate need of a strong spring?
Stan McNeal makes his case for Dodgers left fielder Manny Ramirez, but Chris Bahr says it is Cubs left field Alfonso Soriano who most needs to recapture his productive form:
Four years ago while playing with the Nationals, Alfonso Soriano joined the uber-exclusive 40-40 club during a contract year. He quickly cashed in, signing an eight-year, $136 million deal with the Cubs a couple of months before his 30th birthday.
Alfonso Soriano needs to shake off his injury woes to return to his old form.
Beginning this season (and running through the 2014 season), Soriano will earn $18 million annually. His contract was backloaded, but the opposite apparently was true of his production. At least the Cubs don’t have to worry about paying him a $75,000 bonus for winning a Gold Glove.
If the Cubs are going to compete this season — with spring training quickly approaching, there doesn’t appear to be the usual level of this is THE year hype — several things will have to happen. They are going to need a stronger effort from their rotation, better luck in terms of health and a return to form by Soriano. The Cubs fell off the map offensively in 2009, and Soriano’s bat can help rescue them from the depths to which they sank.
Soriano’s revival must start with a strong spring. But what are the chances Soriano will deliver?
The obstacles
Eroding production. Soriano’s homer totals and OPS have dropped in each of the past three seasons, and 2009 was the first full season of his career when he failed to reach double digits in steals.
Health. Over the past two seasons, Soriano has missed 98 games (after missing 42 from 2001-06). That has contributed to his offensive decline, and it is cause for serious alarm.
Xavier Nady’s arrival. Assuming Nady’s troublesome elbow (two Tommy John surgeries) is healthy, he is expected to cut into right fielder Kosuke Fukudome’s playing time. But if Soriano gets off to a slow start, he often could find himself on the bench in favor of Nady.
The optimism
Rudy Jaramillo. The hitting guru brought out the best in Soriano (.274-64-195) during their two years together in Texas. The Cubs hired Jaramillo to repair an offense that finished 21st in OPS, 22nd in runs and 26th in batting average last season.
Lineup position. Soriano might be miscast as a left fielder, but he no longer is miscast as a leadoff man. He is expected to hit fifth this season, and that should result more RBI opportunities and less pressure. In his three seasons with Chicago (primarily in the leadoff spot), Soriano has averaged 27 homers but just 67 RBIs.
More protection. A healthy Aramis Ramirez, who missed much of 2009 because of a shoulder injury and wasn’t 100 percent when he returned, will be key. The addition of center fielder Marlon Byrd (and the subtraction of Milton Bradley) also will be a boost.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
We might never again see a worst-to-first story comparable to the 2008 Rays (from 96 losses in 2007 to the World Series in ’08), but that doesn’t mean a last-place team can’t grab some headlines for impressive year-to-year improvement. This past season, for example, the Mariners rebounded from a 101-loss disaster to finish eight games above .500. But which last-place team from ’09 will be the most-improved in 2010?
Stan McNeal says the Nationals will be noticeably better, but Chris Bahr says the real turnaround will come from the Diamondbacks:
Heading into the 2009 season, the Diamondbacks were pegged — at least by Sporting News — as the second-place team in the N.L. West. Sure, there were costly offseason losses, including Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, but the division was expected to be weak. And Arizona still had the dynamic 1-2 rotation punch of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren.
After four innings on opening day, however, Arizona’s season was all but over. In that start, Webb experienced shoulder discomfort, made an early exit and never threw another pitch all season. The Diamondbacks won the opener, but that marked the only time all season they were above .500. The end result: a 70-92 record — only five fewer losses than the team’s inaugural season in 1998.
But there is potential for a much different result in 2010. Three reasons why:
A healthy shoulder should mean an improved Brandon Webb.
Webb will be back. The 2006 N.L. Cy Young Award winner and 22-game winner in 2008 eventually had shoulder surgery, but he will be 100 percent in spring training. Because the procedure on his shoulder was of the cleanup variety, there is far less concern about his health than if he had required labrum or rotator cuff repairs. Even if Webb doesn’t completely return to dominant form, he will be a big upgrade and should be capable of at least 14-17 wins.
Promising young talent. Not all of the Diamondbacks’ much-hyped youngsters have panned out. Center fielder Chris Young, for example, regressed horribly in 2009, and left fielder Conor Jackson experienced a lost season because of illness. Young should be better this season, and Jackson should be healthy. Meanwhile, right fielder Justin Upton blossomed into a star last season, and third baseman Mark Reynolds was one of only five major leaguers to hit at least 40 homers. Given a chance to start, catcher Miguel Montero hit .316-11-40 after the All-Star break. Stephen Drew slipped a bit but remains an above-average shortstop with plenty of upside.
New additions. They didn’t add Matt Holliday or John Lackey, but the Diamondbacks could be better at second base with Kelly Johnson and in the rotation with Edwin Jackson. Johnson’s slump cost him his starting job in Atlanta last season, but that came on the heels of two consecutive solid seasons (.375 OBP in 2007, 39 doubles in 2008). Jackson has won 27 games the past two seasons but has been far better in the first half (3.19 ERA) than the second (5.11 ERA).
Arizona still has holes at first base, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation, and a worst-to-first jump is highly unlikely. But a .500 finish — or a bit better — is realistic.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
We might never again see a worst-to-first story comparable to the 2008 Rays (from 96 losses in 2007 to the World Series in ’08), but that doesn’t mean a last-place team can’t grab some headlines for impressive year-to-year improvement. This past season, for example, the Mariners rebounded from a 101-loss disaster to finish eight games above .500. But which last-place team from ’09 will be the most-improved in 2010?
Stan McNeal says the Nationals will be noticeably better, but Chris Bahr says the real turnaround will come from the Diamondbacks:
Heading into the 2009 season, the Diamondbacks were pegged — at least by Sporting News — as the second-place team in the N.L. West. Sure, there were costly offseason losses, including Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon, but the division was expected to be weak. And Arizona still had the dynamic 1-2 rotation punch of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren.
After four innings on opening day, however, Arizona’s season was all but over. In that start, Webb experienced shoulder discomfort, made an early exit and never threw another pitch all season. The Diamondbacks won the opener, but that marked the only time all season they were above .500. The end result: a 70-92 record — only five fewer losses than the team’s inaugural season in 1998.
But there is potential for a much different result in 2010. Three reasons why:
A healthy shoulder should mean an improved Brandon Webb.
Webb will be back. The 2006 N.L. Cy Young Award winner and 22-game winner in 2008 eventually had shoulder surgery, but he will be 100 percent in spring training. Because the procedure on his shoulder was of the cleanup variety, there is far less concern about his health than if he had required labrum or rotator cuff repairs. Even if Webb doesn’t completely return to dominant form, he will be a big upgrade and should be capable of at least 14-17 wins.
Promising young talent. Not all of the Diamondbacks’ much-hyped youngsters have panned out. Center fielder Chris Young, for example, regressed horribly in 2009, and left fielder Conor Jackson experienced a lost season because of illness. Young should be better this season, and Jackson should be healthy. Meanwhile, right fielder Justin Upton blossomed into a star last season, and third baseman Mark Reynolds was one of only five major leaguers to hit at least 40 homers. Given a chance to start, catcher Miguel Montero hit .316-11-40 after the All-Star break. Stephen Drew slipped a bit but remains an above-average shortstop with plenty of upside.
New additions. They didn’t add Matt Holliday or John Lackey, but the Diamondbacks could be better at second base with Kelly Johnson and in the rotation with Edwin Jackson. Johnson’s slump cost him his starting job in Atlanta last season, but that came on the heels of two consecutive solid seasons (.375 OBP in 2007, 39 doubles in 2008). Jackson has won 27 games the past two seasons but has been far better in the first half (3.19 ERA) than the second (5.11 ERA).
Arizona still has holes at first base, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation, and a worst-to-first jump is highly unlikely. But a .500 finish — or a bit better — is realistic.
Chris Bahr is a senior editor for Sporting News. E-mail him at cbahr@sportingnews.com.
